Kremlin considers deeper ties with Belarus after Ukraine war
The Kremlin authorities might reconsider the plan to annex Belarus to Russia after the war in Ukraine ends, according to sources close to the presidential administration who spoke with Meduza. They suggest this process could be framed as a "deeper integration" of the two countries.
"For example, there was talk that in 2025, we could hold early elections, secure a victory, and elect a ‘victory parliament’ that includes some proportion of military personnel," explained one of the sources. However, he noted that this scenario "depends entirely on Aleksandr Lukashenko, and he clearly wants to remain the full-fledged ruler [of Belarus]."
Lukashenko ready to transfer power
As the next presidential elections approach in Belarus, Lukashenko, who has been in office since 1994 and is seeking a seventh term, expressed his willingness to transfer power to a new generation in the future.
"I don’t cling to power. I will do everything to quietly and calmly pass on this power to a new generation. Because I hope that I and you as well will still live under the new government," said the Belarusian leader. However, he added that as long as his health permits, he intends to continue serving in the state position.
In December 2024, Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an agreement on mutual security guarantees. This document outlines the responsibilities of both parties in terms of defense, sovereignty protection, independence, and upholding each country's constitutional order, as well as ensuring territorial integrity and the inviolability of the State Union's borders. The agreement also addresses the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory.
"Creeping annexation" of Belarus
Even before the large-scale war in Ukraine began, the Kremlin had devised a plan for the "creeping annexation" of Belarus by 2030. This plan included "harmonizing" Russian and Belarusian law, coordinating foreign and defense policies, and fostering trade and economic cooperation centered on Russia's interests.
After the war in Ukraine started, Lukashenko announced that Moscow and Minsk would form a "unity" of" two independent and sovereign states" to jointly overcome sanctions. However, he emphasized that he and Putin are not foolish enough to resort to outdated methods and incorporate Belarus into Russia.
