Kremlin hints at nuclear doctrine change amid Western tensions
Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has repeatedly threatened the use of nuclear weapons. However, these threats have not deterred the West from providing aid to Ukraine, nor have they stopped Ukraine itself from launching an offensive in the Kursk region. Now, Russia intends to change its nuclear doctrine, which means the principles for using nuclear weapons.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, quoted on Sunday by Russian state media, announced that the Kremlin will change its nuclear doctrine in response to the alleged "intensification of the course by Western opponents" regarding Ukraine.
Reuters reports that the current doctrine, decreed in 2020 by Vladimir Putin, envisions the use of nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear or conventional attack if it threatens the existence of the Russian state.
However, in June, Putin suggested that the doctrine could be changed. Nationalist commentators have voiced that the criteria for using nuclear weapons should be lowered to "sober up" Russia's Western enemies, according to Reuters, which adds that Ryabkov's statement is the clearest signal yet that changes will indeed be introduced.
Another threat from Putin?
"The work is at an advanced stage and there is a clear intention to introduce amendments," said the deputy head of Russian diplomacy.
Since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin has repeatedly threatened the West with the use of nuclear weapons. He also announced the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.
These threats, as Reuters notes, have not deterred the United States or their allies from increasing military aid to Ukraine to levels that would have been unimaginable before the outbreak of the war, including providing tanks, long-range missiles, and F-16 fighters.
Where is the "red line"?
As noted by The Wall Street Journal, these threats have not deterred Ukraine from attacking Russia. The WSJ highlights that for decades, the theory of nuclear escalation suggested that countries possessing atomic weapons are largely immune to attacks because the aggressor risks triggering Armageddon.
Meanwhile, although Ukraine occupies part of Russian territory, neither side seems to consider the Kursk region to be strategically important, so Ukraine's attack—however embarrassing for the Kremlin—does not show signs of crossing a Russian red line.
Nikolai Sokov, a former Soviet and Russian arms control negotiator, in an interview with the WSJ, explained that nobody knows the Russian red line—they never specified it, saying that they might find out later that we crossed the red line two months ago.
According to Sokov, the Kremlin and President Vladimir Putin seem to consider threats to their regime as sovereign threats to Russia. Seen from this perspective, significant Ukrainian gains or Russian losses could provoke nuclear escalation. However, it would likely begin with more frequent use of conventional weapons rather than a nuclear attack.
Ukraine breaks the taboo
The WSJ describes Ukraine's attack on the Kursk region as a demonstration that taboos can be broken without tragic consequences, stating that part of this goal is to convince the White House that Ukraine should be allowed to use more lethal and precise U.S. weapons to attack Russia. However, many Western officials remain cautious, particularly in Washington and Berlin because Putin is unpredictable.
The WSJ notes notes that nuclear strategies and defining the opponent's red lines remain a high-stakes game.
Christopher Chivvis, an expert at the American think tank RAND Corporation, who has assessed nuclear risks, says it's like walking in the dark towards a cliff, adding that they know it’s out there somewhere, but they don't know exactly where.
