$8 billion boost: US ramps up Ukraine military aid till 2025

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky recently visited the United States, where he spoke at the UN General Assembly and met with many key American politicians, including Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Donald Trump.

Andrzej Kohut, an expert on American affairs from the Center for Eastern Studies, commented that Kyiv's leadership tried to capitalize on the momentum generated by Joe Biden's administration in Washington.

According to Kohut, the main goal of Zelensky's visit was to convince the Biden administration to increase aid for Ukraine. Although there was no official reaction from Washington, unofficial press leaks suggest that the Americans saw the same expectations previously expressed by Ukraine, such as quick inclusion in NATO and increased military aid.

Kohut observed that the U.S. encountered the same maximalist expectations from Ukraine, which included rapidly integrating Ukraine into NATO, permitting the use of American missiles for strikes deep within Russia, and significantly boosting aid to Kyiv. In terms of convincing the U.S. to fully back Ukraine's victory plan during Zelensky's visit, Kohut suggested that it likely did not achieve success.

Nonetheless, President Biden announced military aid to Ukraine worth about $8 billion, which is part of a package passed by the US Congress in April.

Jacek Tarociński, an analyst at the Center for Eastern Studies, explained that $5.5 billion comes from the Presidential Drawdown Authority, and another $2.4 billion comes from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). This aid includes the delivery of ammunition for air defense systems and unmanned systems.

Kohut noted that the Biden administration is pressing to spend $2.4 billion by the end of his term, fearing a change in leadership in the White House.

Kohut explained that the Biden administration is concerned that a change in the presidency could lead to the allocated funds either going unused or being utilized in a more limited way. This is why there is urgency to fully spend the $61 billion authorized by Congress before Biden's term ends in April 2024.

Tarociński assessed that for Ukraine to maintain its engagement in the war, it needs American aid worth from half a billion to a billion dollars a month. The currently granted $8 billion should suffice until February 2025.

The November elections are also associated with changes in the US Congress, which may affect future decisions regarding aid to Ukraine.

Tarociński pointed out that, regardless of which party secures the majority in both chambers of Congress, the narrow margins predicted by polls suggest potential instability and challenges in approving another aid package for Ukraine, similar to the issues seen in the previous term.

It is difficult to predict the impact of the presidential election results on aid to Ukraine. If Kamala Harris wins, Biden's policy will likely continue, while the Trump administration might aim to freeze the conflict or pursue even greater military actions.

Kohut believes that, in the event of a potential Donald Trump administration, it’s difficult to dismiss the possibility that Trump’s promises are more than just campaign rhetoric. Observing the developments surrounding Trump and the outlined political strategies, Kohut suggests that a future Republican government would likely focus on quickly freezing the conflict and initiating peace talks.

Zelensky also visited an ammunition factory in Pennsylvania, which was met with criticism from Republicans, who saw it as siding with Democrats.

The American daily "Wall Street Journal" previously reported that Ukraine is saving artillery ammunition. Due to potential supply problems, this may be repeated at the beginning of 2025.

"Ukraine certainly cannot afford risky offensive actions; it must remain on the defensive; moreover, it must plan for long-term defence because there is no certainty about what will happen later," noted Tarociński.

Biden announced the transfer of the third Patriot air defence system battery to Ukraine, which will come from stockpiles now.

Additionally, Ukraine will receive AGM-154 JSOW, which will allow precise strikes on targets. Tarociński pointed out the limited range of this weaponry due to Russian air defences.

Biden also announced training for additional Ukrainian F-16 pilots, which will be a significant effort for the USA, but this number may be insufficient from Ukraine's perspective.

Training Ukrainian pilots could be more effective with the support of international allies such as France, the UK, and Romania.

The White House announced that on October 12, a high-level meeting of the Ramstein Group will be held in Germany. President Biden will host, and Volodymyr Zelensky will represent Ukraine.

The Ramstein Group, an alliance of over 50 countries, was formed in response to the Russian invasion and aimed to provide Ukraine with regular military aid.