Africa's reliance on Russian wheat sparks food crisis fears

Africa is becoming a major market for Russian grain, with many countries on the continent increasingly dependent on it, even those that had never previously used wheat.

Wheat production in Africa is relatively low, so most African countries rely on imports to meet demand.

Benin is dependent on it by as much as 99.8%. Although small by African standards, this country is a significant producer of wheat flour in the region, exporting it to Niger, Burkina Faso, and even to France and Germany.

Russia's aggression against Ukraine has made wheat supplies uncertain, resulting in price increases of up to 30% over the past year.

Many farmers in Benin have returned to ancient traditions and started producing flour from bananas. This trend is also seen in Togo, Liberia, and other West African countries, which are facing the worst food crisis in history. Various factors contribute to this crisis, such as Islamist uprisings forcing farmers off their lands, as well as floods, droughts, and the war in Ukraine exacerbating the situation.

The largest African recipient of Russian wheat is Egypt, which purchased 1.4 million tons in September. Russia also sells wheat to Algeria, Mozambique, Tunisia, Tanzania, Kenya, Ivory Coast, Ghana, and even Namibia and Botswana, countries whose cuisines traditionally rely on corn.

For Kenya, Russia has become the seventh largest supplier of this grain, whereas it was ninth last year. Moroccan buyers have resumed purchasing Russian wheat after a two-year hiatus, due to pressure from local millers. Russia has now become one of Morocco's largest suppliers. This North African country is expected to buy more Russian wheat this season than French, as France, traditionally its main supplier, anticipates exporting much less due to rain-damaged crops.

Africa switched to Russian grain this year mainly because it was cheaper than Ukrainian grain. In early October, Russian wheat was priced at $236 per ton at the Egyptian port of Alexandria, compared to $245 for Ukrainian wheat. Ukraine has focused on markets other than Africa and is currently exporting wheat to countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam.

However, next year could present more challenges for Russian wheat. Russian crop yields are expected to drop to their lowest level in 11 years by 2025. Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, has been hit by a severe drought threatening its winter crops. According to Reuters, wheat production in Russia has been declining since it reached a record 5.8 billion bushels in 2022. Last year, yields fell to 5.4 billion bushels, and this year's forecast has been lowered to 4.8 billion bushels.

African countries will acutely feel the shortage. According to Akinwumi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), in African countries unprepared for a food crisis, the wheat shortfall—given the continent's demand has risen to over 75 million tons—could lead to serious social unrest.

Agricultural market experts are seeking ways to address this crisis at the ongoing "West and Central Africa Wheat Summit 2024" in Abuja, Nigeria.