America's nuclear arsenal overhaul: Playing catch-up in missile tech
Russia, North Korea, and China may threaten the world with modern long-range ballistic missiles launched from land. Meanwhile, the United States is still relying on its outdated, 50-year-old LGM-30 Minuteman missiles. Although the U.S. once had modern ballistic missiles, it abandoned them and is now trying to catch up.
The American nuclear arsenal resembles a technology museum. Until just a few years ago, the computers responsible for overseeing the intercontinental ballistic missile launchers were using archaic data carriers, such as the 8-inch floppy disks developed in 1972.
By mid-2019, these were finally replaced with modern data carriers, but the weapons housed in the underground silos remained unchanged – LGM-30G Minuteman III missiles. These rockets, introduced into service in the early 1970s, are now over 50 years old.
LGM-30G Minuteman III – a 50-year-old pillar of Western security
The Minuteman III is a three-stage solid-fuel missile weighing over 35 tons and measuring slightly over 59 feet in length. It offers a range of approximately 8,078 miles and a flight speed reaching Mach 24. Putin’s claims that only Russia has such fast missiles are not accurate. CEP, or circular error probable, indicating accuracy, is about 590 feet in this case.
Since the LGM-30G Minuteman III missile carries a nuclear warhead with a yield of up to 475 kt (the bomb dropped on Hiroshima had a yield of about 16 kt), high accuracy is not particularly significant. The missile was designed to destroy cities or industrial centers on another continent, not precise targets.
The basic technical specifications of the Minuteman are similar to modern rockets. Most intercontinental and intermediate-range missiles have similar dimensions, mass, and range. However, modern ICBMs have a significant advantage in penetrating anti-ballistic defenses.
Although specific technical solutions are usually classified, higher chances of penetrating enemy defenses can be achieved by using MIRV warheads with numerous sub-warheads, decoys released in the final phase of flight, various types of lures, or masking the missile launch itself.
Electronic warfare also plays a role, using active jamming, or even attempting to deactivate radars over a large area with an electromagnetic pulse.
LGM-118A Peacekeeper and nuclear trains
The Pentagon recognized the weaknesses of the Minuteman decades ago. That’s why in the 1970s, the U.S. developed a successor to this weapon – the LGM-118A Peacekeeper missile. This four-stage rocket weighed over 88 tons.
Compared to the Minuteman, the Peacekeeper offered greater accuracy, the ability to carry up to 11 sub-warheads, and something known as a cold start. This involves the missile not launching directly from the silo but being ejected from it (usually with pressurized gas) to a height of tens of meters. Only then, in the air, is the engine ignited.
It was planned that the Peacekeeper would not only be deployed in stationary silos but also on mobile launchers, which are harder to locate and destroy.
With this in mind, a whole system of rail-based launchers named the Peacekeeper Rail Garrison was developed. Trains armed with 50 missiles were to move continuously across the railway network or hide in tunnels, emerging only to launch the missiles.
Ultimately, this solution was not implemented, but the stationary variant of the Peacekeeper entered service in the 1980s and remained until 2005, when the U.S. decided to withdraw and dismantle all such missiles. Earlier, in the early 1990s, work on the light, intercontinental ballistic missile designed for mobile launchers, MGM-134 Midgetman, was abandoned.
ICBM with conventional warheads
One idea for using decommissioned ICBM class missiles – without nuclear warheads – was to deploy them for global, rapid attacks with conventional warheads. Missiles capable of striking any corner of the globe within half an hour were considered, among other uses, during the so-called war on terror.
Russia did not agree to the use of ballistic missiles in such a role at that time. Moscow argued that the launch of a missile – even without a nuclear warhead – could be misinterpreted as the start of a nuclear war.
It is worth noting that on November 20, 2024, Russia attacked the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with a missile, likely an RS-26 Rubezh. Although this missile is classified as an IRBM (intermediate-range) and thus has a shorter range than an ICBM, in practice, Russia did what it had managed to deter the U.S. from doing by invoking the global security system.
The future of American strategic deterrence
Currently, the United States is working to rebuild its strategic deterrence potential, supported by three key arms programs.
These include the program for building Columbia-class strategic submarines (formerly SSBN-X), stealthy B-21 Raider bombers, and the next-generation intercontinental ballistic missile LGM-35A Sentinel.
Work on the LGM-35A Sentinel – as the winner of the GBSD (Ground Based Strategic Deterrent) program – has been conducted since 2020 by the Northrop Grumman Corporation. Conceptually, the Sentinel is similar to the Minuteman. It will be a lightweight and relatively simple missile equipped with a single W87 mod 1 nuclear warhead (though technically adapted to carry three).
As stated by Air Force Global Strike Command commander Gen. Anthony Cotton in 2022, "This system will be a highly resilient and capable deterrent that will bring global stability to us and our allies for decades to come."
The program, which is currently estimated to cost $160 billion, is delayed by at least two years. The first Sentinels were planned to enter service in 2029 or 2030, gradually replacing all Minuteman missiles. The LGM-35A Sentinel missiles are expected to remain a central component of American nuclear deterrence until 2070.
