Belarus at the border: Ukrainian fears rise amidst military drills
The authorities in Kyiv have called upon the regime in Minsk to withdraw their troops from the Ukrainian border. This follows exercises in the Homyel Region. Is this the beginning of a new war? An expert believes that this is not the case. He points out the double game and possible provocations.
Belarus organized military maneuvers in the Homyel Region. The exercises met with an immediate reaction from the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA). The department stated special forces, tanks, artillery, anti-aircraft systems, and engineering equipment at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border.
The government in Kyiv called on Alexander Lukashenko to withdraw troops from the border, warning that Minsk might be making a "tragic mistake." Does this mean we are close to another war? Kamil Kłysiński, the main specialist of the Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova Team at the Polish Center for Eastern Studies, believes it is entirely different.
There will definitely not be an additional war. Lukashenko does not want to get into this conflict. Belarus is maneuvering between the expectations of society and Putin's demands. I'm not even sure if Putin expects Belarus to enter the war. There are no Russian forces there, and the Belarusian ones would only be appetizers - Kłysiński from CES said in an interview with Interia.
The expert adds that Lukashenko "wants to survive," and Belarusians are afraid of war. A possible attack on Ukraine could shake his position, even within internal power circles. Why then were there such ambiguous military moves?
Does Ukraine want to drive a wedge between Putin and Lukashenko?
In Kłysiński's opinion, "Lukashenko may want to cause some commotion, to which the Ukrainians will have to react."
He wants to gain enough so that Putin is satisfied with him. To pull some Ukrainian forces from Donbas and the Kursk Region - the expert said in an interview with Interia.
Interestingly, one cannot rule out Ukraine playing a game as well. The expert points out that 1100-1200 soldiers are stationed at the border—a very small number. Perhaps the Ukrainians are deliberately exaggerating the threat to force Lukashenko to deny any intention of an attack. This is a way to create a rift between the Belarusian dictator and Vladimir Putin.
Interestingly, Lukashenko recently sent well wishes on Ukraine's Independence Day. He said that "Ukrainians are hardworking and friendly people." He also spoke about "establishing peace."
