Belarus' election spectacle: A facade of control and power

"We absolutely cannot speak about elections in any sense. It is an empty electoral spectacle devoid of content and meaning from our point of view. Of course, for Lukashenko, it is an important signal of strength and dominance over the country," said Kamil Kłysiński from the Center for Eastern Studies (OSW) in an interview with PAP.

He added, "Lukashenko has achieved his goal: he controls the country, manages all processes, society, and elites, and the security sector is absolutely loyal to him, with support from Russia. These are all the aspects needed to maintain totalitarian power, which is what we are currently dealing with in Belarus," the expert noted.

Therefore, from Lukashenko's perspective, this is a successful project: he will simply 're-elect' himself as president. However, regarding any prospects for Belarus, it is a very bleak circumstance, highlighting how deeply the country is currently submerged in terms of political, economic, and values and norms of the civilized world, specifically European norms," he continued.

Kłysiński pointed out that the Belarusian authorities "occasionally repeat that they are in Europe," although they have not emphasized this much lately. Instead, there is more discussion of Eurasia and eastern cooperation, which also "says a lot about the situation and the ideology of the Belarusian regime," the OSW expert emphasized.

Sunday's "elections" are almost entirely directed at the "internal market" and serve as a signal to Russia that "Lukashenko is worthy of continued support, demonstrating his capacity for a successful re-election, and that no one can oppose him," the expert explained, stressing that "Russia appreciates this because similar rules prevail there."

Kłysiński also believes that the "elections" are an element of disinformation against the West. He noted that some independent Belarusian experts feared Lukashenko would attempt to "sell" these elections to the West as a means to start a dialogue.

"I do not see such serious attempts on the part of the Belarusian authorities. I assume that at this stage, Lukashenko does not want dialogue with the West. Many indicators suggest this, including the situation in Polish-Belarusian relations, such as the case of Andrzej Poczobut. The low quality of signals sent to the West and their provocative nature indicate a hybrid war is being waged against us. Also, attempts to engage in dialogue with us and Lukashenko's claims of wanting to talk with the West are part of a hybrid war; they are disinformation," said Kłysiński.

The expert does not anticipate any signs of public dissent related to the election. "Society is intimidated, people want to survive, and repressions are widespread. One can be detained practically for any reason. This is a totalitarian state. Organizing a protest in an authoritarian state, as Belarus was until 2020-2021, was still possible, as we saw in 2020, which surprised the authorities. In a totalitarian state, it is much more difficult," he explained.

Since the fall of 2024, Belarus has experienced another wave of repressions, evidently connected to the "elections." "It is about further intimidation, tightening the screws. People were detained, summoned for questioning, and searches were conducted," he listed.

According to Kłysiński, the recent pardon of around 200 political prisoners by Lukashenko was also related to the election. "It is an element of the regime's 'pre-election campaign.' It's appearances and disinformation, mainly against its own citizens. Lukashenko wanted to show the regime's human face: sick people and those with small children were pardoned," he added.

The pardons might also have aimed to create confusion within the Belarusian opposition in exile. "And this indeed succeeded somewhat, sparking a discussion among the opposition on whether to react to this," he added.

However, he noted that Western elites and experts, including Polish ones, are aware that this is just a show, and the regime has no intention of halting the repressions or releasing all political prisoners.

The OSW expert does not rule out that after the "elections," there may be a slight reduction in the level of repressions in the country, as "the regime will stabilize again, and Lukashenko will confirm his power." According to Kłysiński, this will only be a temporary change in the dynamics of repression.

"The goal of Lukashenko's regime is to maintain power, which in the current conditions means maintaining strict control over society and preserving the totalitarian model. And that will be preserved," he emphasized.

Therefore, these elections are pure political spectacle, which will not represent a breakthrough point, the expert summed up.

The Belarusian opposition refers to the planned election as a "non-election," emphasizing that in a country mired in repressions, there can be no talk of any democratic process.