China's ambitious naval expansion: Building a new fleet

According to satellite images from early April, the Chinese "land-based aircraft carrier" built in Wuhan has undergone modernization. This facility has been known for several years, with its first images published in 2015.

Originally part of the 701st Institute of the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation at the People's Liberation Army Navy Academy, the facility detected by satellites as late as 2009 roughly corresponded to Soviet Kuznetsov-class aircraft carriers. This is not surprising, as they (more precisely, the ex-Varyag, ex-Riga) originally served as models for the first two Chinese aircraft carriers. The Type 001 Liaoning is actually a rebuilt Varyag, and the Type 002 Shandong is its improved version. The facility, known as the "concrete aircraft carrier," likely still played a role during the testing of solutions prepared for the Type 002.

In the images of the "docked" vessel in Hubei province, a large building over 984 feet long and 230 feet wide can be seen, with a roof styled to resemble the deck of a medium-sized aircraft carrier with a ski-jump bow configuration, replacing catapults on many smaller aircraft carriers. Nearby is a mock-up of an island serving as a combat information center, main command post, and air operation command center. This mock-up likely performs similar functions, being equipped with features close to those of a real vessel. It is most likely used for testing new communication systems, flight control, and various management methods of the aircraft carrier and its air group.

The test function of the center was confirmed by its successive modifications. For example, before 2015, a mock-up (or perhaps a test device?) of the H/LJQ 382 radar appeared, later mounted on the Type 003 carrier (current Fujian). Additional changes have been observed. Moreover, the center tests the main feature of an aircraft carrier: the aircraft. In 2021, a mock-up or technology demonstrator of the 5th-generation Shenyang FC-31 multi-role aircraft (now in production as the J-35), which roughly corresponds to the American F-35C, was observed "on deck." It is expected to replace the proven but aging J-15, derived from the Russian Su-33.

In 2023, unmanned combat aircraft GJ-11 Sharp Sword were noticed on the "carrier's deck." Other machines appear regularly, such as helicopters and KJ-600 early warning aircraft. Usually, these are just mock-ups, but there are reports of visits by real machines. It is notable that the center itself continues to develop; for example, in 2015, a land-based equivalent of a large Type 055 destroyer appeared next to the "carrier."

Furthermore, the building serves an educational function. According to Chinese media, the center is used for training naval aviators, technical staff, certain deck specialists, and officers. Training using a land-based equivalent of a real aircraft carrier is expected to be cheaper and likely safer than using a real vessel.

In its latest configuration, following a thorough reconstruction, the "vessel" resembles the American CVN-78 USS Gerald Ford aircraft carriers. The width of the deck has significantly increased, apparent by its distance from a nearby road. The island is differently shaped and shifted toward the stern, as seen on the Fords.

Several aerial vehicles were observed "on deck," which was likely still under renovation at the time the satellite image was taken. The new shape of the vessel mock-up is interpreted as preparation for "playing the role" of the yet-to-be-built Type 004 aircraft carrier, which is expected to differ significantly from the older ones. It is thought to incorporate nuclear propulsion, electromagnetic catapults, and sizes and displacement close to American Ford-class supercarriers. The carrier is expected to enter service by the end of the decade, with at least four units being built in total. This is, of course, significantly fewer than what the US Navy has, even counting older vessels (of which the first two are essentially experimental), but the new quality combined with quantitative development will certainly require American admirals to consider Chinese aircraft carriers in their plans.

Beijing began considering building aircraft carriers back in the 1970s, as the state's ambitions and capabilities grew. The work started with acquiring know-how through old ships for thorough examination. The first was the Australian HMAS Melbourne, a Majestic-class light aircraft carrier, which provided valuable information about building ships of this class despite being stripped of key equipment by the owners. It is known, for instance, that its steam catapult was copied and tested using a modified J-8IIG (a developmental version of the MiG-21).

Later, they purchased Soviet-era Kiev-class aircraft cruisers: Minsk and Novorossiysk. Over time, both were converted for entertainment purposes, but likely after thorough examination. The key acquisition was the unfinished ex-Varyag from Russia in 1998. Due to years of planning, reconstruction, and lack of experience, the ship, rather experimental, entered service only after 14 years as the Liaoning. Seven years later, the Shandong entered service, a ship built based on experience from rebuilding and operating the Liaoning but significantly improved, yet still lagging behind the Nimitz or Ford classes. Improvements included the design of the ski ramp, an expanded hangar, altered island construction, and upgraded equipment.

The Fujian is significantly larger. Although still smaller than American vessels, it is not by much: it has about 88,000 tons of displacement, about 1,037 feet in length, and about 249 feet in width. The ship is equipped with pioneering electromagnetic catapults, making it a flat-deck vessel. The air group is more numerous, likely comprising over 50 airplanes and helicopters (compared to over 30 on the 001 and 002). The ship is expected to enter service in 2025, provided that sea trials commencing in 2024 proceed successfully.

As a curiosity, it can be noted that China has at least one more "land-based aircraft carrier," this time American. In 2021, satellite images from Maxar detected a mock-up of an aircraft carrier built in the Taklamakan Desert in Xinjiang province. This mock-up is movable, placed on railway tracks. According to the US Navy, this movable "land-based vessel" is used to test anti-ship guided missiles, including ballistic DF-21 missiles. It is worth mentioning that this time the mock-ups are very simplified (mock-ups of other classes of vessels were also recorded), essentially flat silhouettes seen from above, without equipment, superstructures, etc. This may indicate a desire to mainly test detection, tracking, and weapon targeting systems on targets.

The construction of new, increasingly larger aircraft carriers is just one manifestation of the development of Chinese naval might, although the most spectacular one. In its rivalry with the USA in the Pacific, China is building more ships: amphibious assault ships (including those the size of smaller aircraft carriers, like the latest Type 076), submarines (both conventional and nuclear-powered), large destroyers, and a whole mass of "small ships" or auxiliary vessels. It is already a great force today, but the question remains: do Chinese technologies still lag behind Western ones?

Additionally, the Chinese fleet is tightly contained by US allies, especially Japan and Taiwan, so to break through further, it needs, if not a miracle, then at least a great deal of luck. However, it might perhaps reach Taiwan.