Dnipropetrovsk on edge: Russians threaten new front in Ukraine
We must be prepared for Russian aggressors to enter the administrative borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region, warned Col. Serhiy Hrabskiy, a reservist with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in Ukrainian media. Ukrainians find themselves in a difficult situation, trying to complete the construction of defense lines to stop Russia's advances.
Ukrainian and Western military experts agree that the battle being fought near Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine could allow Russians to enter the Dnipropetrovsk region. Pokrovsk is a logistical hub of Ukrainian defense, connecting three main roads leading to the region and the city of Dnipro. The region's capital had a population of 980,000 before the war. Russian troops are located four miles from the region's border.
"If Putin's soldiers cross this line, it will be the first attack on a new region of Ukraine since 2022 and would deliver a significant blow to Kyiv's war efforts. This region is home to military command and army support forces, including volunteer groups, drone manufacturers, and more," says an analysis in the "Financial Times," citing its correspondent's reports from the region.
Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak believes the Dnipropetrovsk region is one of the Kremlin's main targets. A year ago, he predicted that Russian plans for 2024 included reaching the line of the Dnipro River, which forms the natural border of eastern Ukraine. Russian territorial gains would then rely on this obstacle.
"Russian forces are using the tactic of attacking in small groups. They don’t enter cities, as seen around Pokrovsk, but instead bypass them, cutting defenders off from supplies. Unfortunately, it's effective." It seemed that the harsh autumn weather conditions might halt the events on the Russian front, but that did not happen. The situation is expected to worsen in the winter. The Ukrainian army is in a severe crisis due to the lack of reserves and exhaustion from combat, said Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak, former commander of the Land Forces, to WP.
Military analyst Rob Lee points out the same problem of Ukrainian defense. "As long as this issue of lack of force continues to deepen, Ukraine takes on significant risks because its units may not be able to fill the gaps on the front," he assessed in his latest analysis.
Ukraine is racing against time to build fortifications
Col. Serhiy Hrabskiy told Ukrainian media that the Dnipropetrovsk region is not as densely built and industrialized as the Donetsk region, and the battles there will have a different character. "Open spaces allow for the mass use of drones. There is nowhere to hide. Moving soldiers involves a very high level of risk," Hrabskiy assessed.
The Ukrainian agency UNIAN quotes Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhdanov, who stated that in the Dnipropetrovsk region, it is necessary to build a second and third line of fortifications and trenches. He also warned that the Russians threaten the region by advancing from the direction of Pokrovsk.
Media have reminded that last year the Dnipropetrovsk region spent the equivalent of $7.3 million on the construction of military installations. However, local journalists warned that the fortifications are not complete, and in some sections, no workers or engineering troops were present.
The spokesman for the eastern command of Ukraine, Nazar Voloshyn, said a few days ago that the Russians were pushed back from Pokrovsk, and intense fighting is taking place near Kurakhove and Velika Novosilka. He reassured that, according to the command's assessment, the Russian forces deployed in this region do not seem large enough to launch an offensive on Dnipropetrovsk.
How large are the Russian forces in the region
Recently, it was reported that from September to the end of November, the Russians captured over 620 square miles in eastern Ukraine. Further gradual withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the battle in Donbas is inevitable, as the Russians hold at least a sixfold numerical advantage there. However, the cost of progress is enormous casualties. With an estimated rate of 1,500 casualties per day (killed and wounded), October was the bloodiest month of the war for Russia, according to Russian independent media Verstka and The Insider.
Vladimir Putin wants to conclude several major battles, sealing territorial gains before the expected negotiations begin, before a possible change in the U.S. administration to Donald Trump. This is typical Russian strategy that may engage all available forces, commented Gen. Roman Polko, former commander of the GROM unit, in an interview with WP.
Ukrainian military correspondent Kostiantyn Mashovets stated that the Russian Eastern Force Group, operating in the directions of Velika Novosilka and Hulyaipole, consists of a maximum of 54,000 soldiers, 350 tanks, over 800 armored fighting vehicles, slightly over 400 artillery systems, and about 100 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS).
