EU faces increased terror threat amid ISIS-Khorasan warnings
Following threats from the Islamic State Khorasan Province about potential attacks on major events in Europe, questions arise about the likelihood of these threats being executed. German officials emphasize the seriousness of the threat. According to Marcin Faliński, a former officer of the Intelligence Agency, Germany is currently the most vulnerable to such attacks.
To recap, the Islamic State Khorasan Province was responsible for a devastating attack on a Moscow concert hall nearly 10 months ago, which resulted in over 140 deaths. Previous attacks have occurred in countries like Iran and Turkey, and attempted attacks have been thwarted in Germany and Sweden.
The Islamic State Khorasan Province is a radical Islamic terrorist organization formally established in January 2015 as a regional branch of the Islamic State, operating primarily in Syria and Iraq. Initially, it focused on organizing the transfer of fighters to Syria before establishing its own autonomous structures in Afghanistan.
As reported by "Bild", potential targets could include the Carnival in Venice, Oktoberfest in Munich, the Cannes Film Festival, and the Vienna Opera Ball. These threats were published on the IS-Ch propaganda platform, Al Azaim Media.
According to an anonymous German security official, the ongoing conflict with Israel continues to stimulate high levels of mobilization among Islamists. "Moreover, recent attacks have shown that all you need is a car or a knife. Potential attackers see this too," says the official.
Faliński believes that German services are currently weak, making them susceptible to future terrorist threats.
- Therefore, the possibility of such attacks cannot be ruled out. However, there are often isolated criminal acts of terror, especially in refugee ghettos from the Middle East, particularly in the former East Germany," Faliński told Wirtualna Polska. He adds that Austrian services are also not viewed favorably.
Faliński comments that a terrorist organization does not have to be fully involved to conduct an attack. "We just need to remember how Al-Qaeda used to operate. It recruited individuals through the internet. It's not necessarily a group of people traveling with backpacks full of explosives heading to Vienna or Munich. They could be recruited and indoctrinated locals. They also have diasporas and groups within their communities, which makes it easier to obtain financial or logistical support without building a terrorist network from scratch," Faliński observes.
Our interviewee agrees with the German official's view that, currently, all that's needed for an attack is a car or a knife.
"It is a mistake to view Germany through the lens of the Abwehr and SD (counterintelligence and SS security service) that operated in the Third Reich. Let's move beyond that. Currently, German services have a pacifist mindset stemming from the post-war generation, perpetuated by young Germans. We’ve seen the consequences in the form of terrorist attacks. Berlin doesn’t learn from this and repeats mistakes. We see how mass events are secured, and it appears weak—very weak," emphasizes Faliński.
In support of these statements, "Der Spiegel" revealed that before the December attack in Magdeburg, authorities in at least six German federal states were aware of the perpetrator, a Saudi named Taleb A., who drove into a group of people. In the attack on the Christmas market in Magdeburg on December 20, 2024, six people were killed and over 230 were injured. "The files contain 105 cases concerning him. Yet nobody stopped him," writes "Der Spiegel".
- Europe may soon adopt measures similar to those planned by Sweden, where the government announced a constitutional change allowing for the revocation of citizenship from dual citizens who obtained a passport through fraud or committed crimes threatening national security. Previously, Sweden was considered one of the most migrant-friendly countries in the European Union. Similar regulations already exist in Denmark," notes Faliński.
He reminds us that an element of terrorism is to intimidate society. "- If I wanted to scare European societies, I would target such events. Fortunately, there are no threats to Poland, and no major events in our country, like the finale of the Great Orchestra of Christmas Charity, have been mentioned. Our leaders must not flaunt this calmness or advertise that it's nice and safe here. That would only provoke potential terrorists. It’s best to remain officially silent while continuously monitoring potential threats through the services," advises the former Polish intelligence officer.
According to our interlocutor, a Russian angle cannot be dismissed in the emerging information about potential attacks.
- We can't be entirely sure that this is solely about terrorists. It might be that the Russians are involved. If I were them, that's what I would do. Chaos and confusion are now primary tools of Moscow's services, regardless of who initiates them. Hacking into Islamist accounts isn't particularly challenging. These aren’t highly secured servers. Breaking access codes isn't a problem for Russian services," assesses Faliński.
He adds that they might also have an agent within an Islamic organization. "An agent could have suggested posting similar messages to scare Europe. Russians have done such things before. Whether it’s them this time, we don’t know. But I don’t believe that Russian services would miss such an opportunity. State terrorism is something they know how to conduct. And who would benefit in Germany? Of course, the pro-Russian AFD," assesses Faliński.
Sylwester Ruszkiewicz
