Forecasting Russia's turmoil: Inflation, democracy, and China's shadow
Over the next five to ten years, I foresee a polycrisis in Russia, said Roland Freudenstein, a political scientist and director of the Brussels office of the Free Russia Foundation, in an interview with Deutsche Welle. The expert added that Russians will experience high inflation and face an economic catastrophe.
The 64-year-old Freudenstein believes that democracy will someday prevail in Russia, as “no country in the world cannot become a democracy." He cited Taiwan as an example, describing it as "the most liberal democracy in East Asia." This occurred despite China's opposition.
However, the political scientist cautioned that Russian democracy will differ from German or French democracy. Nevertheless, freedom of speech and independent institutions will not be lacking.
- Regardless of how much Russian democrats argue among themselves, they agree on this matter: the war against Ukraine is a great crime, and Putin must go, - assessed Freudenstein.
Russia as the "junior partner of China"
In his opinion, the democratization of Russia might begin in 2029. This will be linked to the detachment of autonomous republics like Dagestan from Moscow. However, not all regions will be eager to adopt democratic principles and declare independence. What future would Buryatia have then—both economically and politically? So, I think Russia as a whole is more resilient than it seems to us today, - explains the scientist.
China will not hinder the disintegration of Putin's Russia. The "friendship" proclaimed by Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping is supposed to be "hidden, total cultural hostility, and contempt." Beijing looks down on Moscow, which fears degradation.
If the average Russian doesn't forgive Putin for anything today, it's not for the war against Ukraine. Probably not even for the economic crisis. Rather, it's for the fact that Russia has become the junior partner of China. I don't think the vast majority of Russians accept this, - assessed Freudenstein.
“Economic catastrophe”
The German expert has no illusions about the older generation of Russians, who find it hard to "break away from propaganda." However, he believes in younger citizens—they are supposed to use social media—10 million Russians are said to follow the Free Russia Foundation.
- They are very unhappy, but they know that if they take to the streets today with a poster saying "Down with Putin!", they will be jailed tomorrow for seven years, - claims Freudenstein. He adds that up to 25 percent of Russians benefit from Putin's rule. Despite this, "they will not die for Putinism." The political scientist believes that millions of citizens supported him out of fear and material motives and will not engage in armed struggle with a democratic Russia. They will simply have to adapt to the changes.
These changes may occur within 5 to 10 years. Freudenstein, "gazing" into a crystal ball, predicts that millions will feel the overheating of the Russian economy. This will be accompanied by the effects of the "military disaster" in the war against Ukraine. Republics will begin to collapse, leading to a crisis on many levels. The collapsing economy will result in not only Putin's losing power but also the downfall of the idea of Putinism. However, this would not be possible without the Kremlin's defeat in the war with Ukraine.
