Georgia on edge: Military tension fuels protest showdown
The ongoing confrontation between Georgia's pro-Russian government and the opposition could escalate further, sparked by statements from "Caucasian Union" commanders fighting for Ukraine. They have expressed a desire to protect protesters. At the same time, Russian war veterans are urging the use of force against government opponents.
On Sunday evening, leaders of the "Caucasian Legion" aligned with Ukraine released a video declaration expressing their intent to "safeguard Georgia's national sovereignty and its civilian population from any threats." Lado Gamsakhurdia, head of the "Caucasian Union's" military committee, mentioned that soldiers fighting in Ukraine could return to form Georgia's National Guard. "Georgian unit commanders (...) are awaiting a signal from the president!" he wrote on the X portal.
However, there are concerns about military involvement in the protests. President Salome Zurabishvili has warned that such actions would go "against the protest." She stated, "I have received several messages that Georgian soldiers from Ukraine allegedly intend to join the protest or have already arrived. This is a direct provocation. This is not happening, do not believe it," emphasized the politician, who is one of the protest leaders.
Georgia has been entangled in a political struggle for several days. The new Prime Minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, announced that the country would not commence EU accession talks until 2028 and would reject EU funds, claiming, "European politicians and bureaucrats use grants and loans as means of blackmail."
The anti-EU stance has stirred public sentiment, as surveys indicate that about 80% of Georgians support EU membership. This tension has fueled massive demonstrations in Tbilisi and other cities, which have turned into clashes with the police. Georgia has held candidate status for EU membership for a year now.
On Monday morning, security forces dispersed the protesters, with detentions occurring in courtyards and building entrances. More than 40 people required medical attention, according to Georgian TV stations. Over 200 arrests were made, including the detention of opposition leader Zurab Japaridze.
What's next for Georgia? Russian bloggers demand use of weapons
The involvement of Georgian military forces has been endorsed by Russian war bloggers and veterans of the conflict in Ukraine. A group known as Z-bloggers (named after the "Z" symbol of the Russian invasion army) allege that the protests in Tbilisi are orchestrated by "external forces" and "Western agents." They liken the situation to the Ukrainian Maidan and urge authorities to take decisive actions, including employing weapons.
"The Georgian authorities should issue the strictest possible order to scatter the parasites; otherwise, Georgia will face a great war that could result in tens of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands, of Georgian casualties. No matter how cynical it may sound now, one conditional FAB-1500 for a few hundred protesters is an acceptable price (referring to dropping a FAB-type bomb - ed.)," stated a post on the popular Telegram blog "Veteran's Notes."
Gen. Polko on Georgia: A new phase of the Kremlin's hybrid war
- I believe that events in Georgia are another phase of the hybrid war conducted by Vladimir Putin, aiming to bring politicians with pro-Russian, anti-EU views to power in individual countries - comments Gen. Roman Polko, former commander of the GROM unit, in an interview with us.
- Declarations from Russian veterans are extremely dangerous for people. In case of clashes, the victims are usually accidental participants. At present, it is not in the Kremlin's interest to provoke bloody incidents, but an extreme scenario cannot be ruled out. Let's hope it doesn't happen - adds Gen. Polko. - Moreover, while the EU is preoccupied with discussions and fears of nuclear weapon use, the real threat from Russian policy is countries like Georgia or Moldova potentially entering the Kremlin's sphere of influence - emphasizes the former military official.
They call themselves georgian dream: Steering the country away from the EU
The ruling party, Georgian Dream, perceived as pro-Russian, won Georgia's parliamentary elections, which occurred at the end of October. President Salome Zurabishvili does not acknowledge the election results, refuses to approve the parliament's inauguration, and anticipates new elections. Russia has denied allegations of influencing the power change. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov rejected such accusations, while simultaneously accusing the EU and USA of attempting to instigate a "color revolution" in Georgia.
"Whether street demonstrations will compel the authorities to relent will depend on the protests' size, participants' determination, and the public administration's loyalty to the ruling party. Smaller protests can expect to face brutal suppression. The coming days could be critical for the future of the protests," assesses Wojciech Górecki, a specialist from the Center for Eastern Studies.
Wojciech Wojtasiewicz from the Polish Institute of International Affairs anticipates a gradual, spontaneous reduction of the protests due to participants' lack of hope for success. "The peaceful street protests accompanying the crisis turned out smaller than the opposition expected. They will now attempt to intensify them, but the chances appear limited," notes the PISM analyst in a commentary on Georgia's events.
In his view, the triumphant Georgian Dream party will likely avoid calling for new parliamentary elections but "will complete the formation of a one-party political system through the indirect election of a new president." President Zurabishvili's term concludes in mid-December.
