Germany faces political unrest as migration debate intensifies
Hundreds of thousands of Germans protested at the beginning of February against the initiative by the CDU, supported by the AfD, which is gaining in the polls. The issue is the deportation of migrants. According to Aleksandra Kozaczyńska, an analyst at the Center for Eastern Studies, the German right derives its potential not only from the migration crisis.
In the early days of February, Germans took to the streets to protest the informal agreement between the CDU and the far-right AfD (Alternative for Germany). This agreement calls for permanent border controls and the deportation of migrants who have entered the country illegally. This issue has become a leading topic in the campaign ahead of the snap parliamentary elections on February 23.
Germany. CDU accused of "breaking a taboo"
On Wednesday, January 29, at the initiative of the CDU's chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, the Bundestag passed a resolution announcing the introduction of permanent controls at German state borders and turning away individuals without documents. This was made possible with the support of the previously isolated right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD). The Social Democrats from the SPD and the Greens considered this a "breaking of a taboo." Merz later explained that the gravity of the issue outweighed his discomfort with the AfD's support.
The AfD, led by 45-year-old Bundestag member Alice Weidel, has long built its support base on dissatisfaction with the migration policy initiated by Angela Merkel's government. Weidel was recently bolstered by the unanimous decision of the party to make her the chancellor candidate. Ahead of the February elections, the party further strengthened its support—January polls gave it as much as 22%, currently making the AfD the second political force in Germany.
In the latest survey by the Forschungsgruppe Research Institute on January 30, support for the leading CDU fell below 30% for the first time in weeks. The AfD can count on 21% of the vote, clearly outdistancing Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats and the Greens.
Interestingly, the rise in support for the AfD is not seen as a result of far-right radicals turning towards the center. We are observing a shift towards radicalization. The party had a period in which it considered a course towards the center. Their experience shows that radicalization brings them popularity. That's why they are now seeing support ranging from 20-22 percent, said Michał Kędzierski, an analyst on energy, climate, and transport policy in Germany at the Center for Eastern Studies, in a podcast.
In practice, the AfD remains politically isolated. In Germany, there is talk of a "cordon"—exclusion from any coalition. Due to the populist message, the AfD can't rely on the favor of major media, so its leaders primarily direct their campaign messages through social media.
"AfD rides the wave of employment uncertainty"
According to Aleksandra Kozaczyńska, a specialist on Germany and Northern Europe at the Center for Eastern Studies, AfD "rides the wave of uncertainty related to employment (especially among young people), lack of real wage growth, and rising living costs". German companies are losing international competitiveness, leading to plant closures and layoffs, while unfavorable demographic conditions force increases in contributions, especially health and pension, explains the expert in an interview with money.pl.
The AfD fights for the votes of Germans with primarily conservative and right-wing views, regardless of their social standing. They are more often Germans who are "historically" poorer, from regions that fared less favorably through German reunification and the transformation of East Germany, followed by globalization and EU expansion to the east. Saxony and Thuringia are examples, Kozaczyńska points out.
The AfD denies the phenomenon of climate change, and thus the party's politicians propose abandoning the green transformation, including repealing fleet limits on CO2 emissions by new cars and supporting the production of combustion engine vehicles. They blame these policies for reducing the international competitiveness of German automotive companies. They also propose a return to energy cooperation with Russia to provide low energy prices for businesses, summarizes the OSW expert.
According to the Center for Eastern Studies, the AfD gains through the radicalization of its message, which proves effective primarily on the issue of the migration crisis. "Moderating the narrative will not allow entry into the government coalition in the next term. The party's goal is to become the strongest opposition party in the future parliament with a range of effective tools to influence German politics, allowing the AfD to strengthen ahead of future elections, which it aims to win," reads a commentary on the OSW website.
Not only migrants. How AfD talks about Germany’s economy
The AfD is going into the elections not only with anti-immigrant slogans. The party emphasizes in its program that asylum seekers should not receive monetary benefits but material ones. It also advocates for the government to limit "citizens' benefits" for legally residing foreigners. "We will ensure that hundreds of thousands of able-bodied benefit recipients return to the labor market," the party stresses in its program.
Weidel's party questions the Green Deal and any laws implemented by Brussels in this direction, denying any climate change. "Bans on combustion engines and heating with oil and gas must be abolished. Unfortunately, the CDU is unable to do this," emphasizes the extreme German right. Weidel also announced that if the AfD comes to power, her government will "dismantle the wind turbines of shame," which produce power from renewable energy sources and, in her opinion, mar the landscape.
The AfD is going to the elections with a promise to raise the tax-free amount to 14,000 euros. The party also calls for the abolition of the CO2 emissions tax and a reduction in energy taxes. "We will end the costly 'energy transition' and move away from the EU's 'climate policy.' To obtain cheap and reliable energy, Germany must return to nuclear energy and maintain coal-fired power plants," the party emphasizes. In a populist appeal, they point out that "only the AfD wants to end Germany's decline and start a new economic miracle."
The German right announces increased funding for the army, but without specifics. The AfD also supports the reinstatement of mandatory military service. It does not perceive NATO as a key security guarantor for the country.
Bartłomiej Chudy
