Iran missile attack prompts swift Israeli retaliation with new weapons
The massive missile attack by Iran, as has happened in the past, will not go unanswered. We explain what Israel is most likely to retaliate with, as it has already announced its response.
The Israel Defense Forces have announced a retaliatory attack on Iran after a massive ballistic missile strike on October 1, 2024. This time, the retaliation is expected to be more than just symbolic compared to previous situations.
Israel may target Iran's critical infrastructure, such as refineries, fortified command points, or deployment sites for S-300 air defense systems.
Here's what Israel might use
In addition to the Jericho ballistic missiles carrying nuclear warheads, which are considered the "ultimate weapon," Israel has an air force with a rich arsenal of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles launched from aircraft, both with ranges of several hundred miles.
The most probable scenario is the use of ROCKS aerial ballistic missiles launched from aircraft while still in Israeli airspace.
It is unlikely that Iran would allow the launch of cruise missiles with a range of about 186 miles (300 km) over its territory by enemy aircraft. Such a move is only feasible with F-35I jets that can virtually fly unchecked across the Middle East, but cruise missiles would not fit into their internal bays. Meanwhile, an F-35I raid on targets in Iran using gliding bombs would be too risky.
ROCKS aerial ballistic missiles — a unique weapon of Israel
It is highly probable that Israel's new mysterious weapon, ROCKS, is based on the Sparrow family of missiles designed as ballistic targets for testing the Arrow-3 anti-ballistic system. Previous information about these missiles indicated a two-piece construction, in which the combat warhead module separates from the propulsion segment after burning out.
The Rafael company, responsible for the ROCKS missile, does not provide any specifics about the speed and range of this weapon, only mentioning "extended range." However, boosters from Israeli missiles were found during a previous attack on Iranian territory. Considering the distance, it can be assumed that Israel's mysterious weapon has a range greater than 404 miles (650 km).
The most likely range exceeds 621 miles (1,000 km), in addition to the range of aircraft carrying these missiles. Since it is a ballistic missile that first ascends into space and then descends, the attack speed will be multiple times Mach 1 (1,230 mph). As a result, it is a very difficult target to shoot down, and few air defense systems in the world can cope with it.
In Iran's case, only the Russian S-300 systems could probably intercept it. The Israeli missile's warhead is unknown, but due to the training nature of the platform from which it was created, it is likely to be less than half the value of 1,102 pounds (500 kg). There are only two variants known: fragmentation and bunker-penetrating.
The lower destructive force should not be an issue, as Rafael boasts ROCKS's ten-foot hit precision. This precision is ensured not only by the classic combination of inertial and satellite navigation but also by an optoelectronic warhead that visualizes the target's thermal image. Furthermore, ROCKS can also home in on radar wave sources, allowing it to serve as an equivalent to the AGM-88 HARM for targeting air defense radars.
