Is Putin in a bind? Experts do not doubt that he has a different goal
Experts from the Associated Press analyze that Russia's priority is the collapse of the Ukrainian state, not the recapture of territories in the Kursk region. Therefore, Vladimir Putin does not want to transfer larger forces to this section.
Russian difficulties in the Kursk region
For three weeks, Russia has been struggling with the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region. Still, Vladimir Putin does not consider it a priority and avoids transferring troops from Donbas, AP reports, citing expert opinion.
Shortages in Russian units
In the Kursk region, the Russians lack the units to withstand the Ukrainian offensive. Moreover, Russia does not take decisive action to end the first occupation of its territories since WWII.
Putin's actions and experts' opinions
Nigel Gould-Davies of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) assesses that the Kremlin avoids transferring units to the Kursk region. "In marshaling forces to meet Ukraine's incursion, Russia is doing all it can to avoid drawing units from its own offensive in the Donbas. Russia currently judges that it can contain the threat on its own soil without compromising its most important goal in Ukraine".
Tatiana Stanova from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center told the AP, "Putin’s focus is on the collapse of the Ukrainian state, which he believes will automatically render any territorial control irrelevant".
Nico Lange from the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) points out that Russia is not taking vigorous action against the offensive in the Kursk region, focusing on capturing Pokrovsk. Capturing the fortified Pokrovsk could threaten less protected areas of the Donetsk region.
Chaos in Russian ranks
Analysts observing the movements of Russian forces report that Moscow is forced to chaotically deploy units from across the country, including support forces and irregular units. Removing about 10,000 Ukrainians from the Kursk region would require relocating tens of thousands of soldiers, leading Russia to limit itself to attacking Ukrainian supplies and blocking roads.
Changing battlefield dynamics
Ukraine's capture of part of Russian territory humiliated the Kremlin and changed the dynamics on the front. Defending such a position carries significant risk, extending the front line and creating logistical problems as the lengthening supply routes become easier targets for the enemy.
