Israel seizes opportunity in Syria amidst regime chaos
A few hours after the Assad regime was overthrown in Syria, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched airstrikes on targets in Syria and deployed troops in the buffer zone on the Golan Heights. According to experts, Israel took advantage of the chaos following the rebels' takeover and decided to implement preemptive actions.
Let's recall that on Sunday, IDF forces crossed the demarcation line between Israel and Syria and entered territory under the control of Damascus, patrolled by UN peacekeepers (UNDOF). This marks an entry into the demilitarized zone in the region of the Golan Heights, which has been occupied since 1967.
The Israelis found themselves there for the first time since the Yom Kippur War in 1973-1974. Simultaneously, the IDF conducted airstrikes on targets in Syria, including air bases, intelligence buildings, customs services, barracks, and headquarters of the Syrian government army. The government in Jerusalem reported that Israeli aviation destroyed most of the "strategic weapons" in the Syrian army's inventory within 48 hours. Meanwhile, on Monday, Israeli missile ships destroyed Syria's war fleet.
The IDF has acted in the last few days to attack and destroy strategic capabilities that threaten the State of Israel - said Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz.
Israel attacks in advance
According to Jarosław Kociszewski, what Israel is doing now is preemptive action.
Israel recognized that when the Syrian state falls apart, its main military assets could fall into any hands. They could end up in the hands of Hezbollah or another organization hostile to the government in Jerusalem. Therefore, they decided to destroy everything that could change the balance of power. Hence the strike on the Syrian navy, air force, air defense, missile forces, main strategic weapons warehouses, as well as the military industry and research institutes. – said Jarosław Kociszewski, an expert on the Middle East and editor-in-chief of new.org.pl, to Wirtualna Polska.
In his opinion, as a result, Israel has practically "neutralized" the Syrian army.
As a modern fighting force, it practically ceased to exist. Israel calculated that leaving this equipment in foreign hands could threaten them and decided to eliminate it in a short time, even if it complicates future talks with the new Syrian authorities. – said Kociszewski.
And as he emphasizes, the most important thing is that Israeli forces occupied the Syrian army positions on the summit of Mount Hermon.
It is the highest peak in the area (9,230 feet). A strategic summit. Controlled by the Assad regime so far, it caused a gap in Israel's air defense. Drones were flying through there, hiding in the terrain. Both Hezbollah and Iran took advantage of this. So they occupied the summit to place their radar systems. They now have a clear view over Syria, extending far. Damascus is within the artillery range of the Israeli army. Above all, they have much greater control over the area. – commented a representative of Wirtualna Polska.
Meanwhile, Col. (ret.) Maciej Matysiak emphasizes that Israel is taking advantage of the chaos that ensued with the fall of the Assad regime.
As a result, if the Syrian air defense system does not work, Israeli aviation can "do what it wants." This is an opportunity that the IDF decided to seize. Additionally, it is not known how the new government in Syria will behave and what its relations with ISIS, which is becoming increasingly vocal, will look like. – said Col. (ret.) Maciej Matysiak, former deputy head of the Military Counterintelligence Service and an expert from the Stratpoints Foundation, to WP.
The former military officer believes that Israel is fully utilizing the current situation in Syria.
If they had reservations when Assad was in power, they are now ruthlessly pursuing their goals. That is why they are entering the Golan Heights, bombing weapons warehouses, and penetrating deeper into Syrian territory. Whether they will occupy it for a longer time is unknown. They certainly won't easily give up their current gains. – assessed the former deputy head of SKW.
In his opinion, by creating a buffer zone in Syria, Israel enables itself to intercept and destroy drones heading towards Israel.
We do not know how the new authorities in Syria, focused on HTS, will behave. There are also jihadist organizations there that want to wage holy war across the entire Middle East, including with Israel. Jerusalem is acting quickly because it knows that the rebels lack ground potential, aviation, and long-range attack means. Only light maneuver forces, limited artillery, and drones. It would be a mistake not to take advantage of such a situation. – Matysiak told in the interview.
Implementation of the plan
According to Jarosław Kociszewski, Israel had long intended to take similar actions in Syria. They took advantage of the right moment. It is hard for me to imagine them withdrawing from there in any foreseeable future, especially from Hermon. It is too valuable. They will likely continue to attack if they find they missed any Syrian military assets or if the new authorities in Syria start taking any moves against Israel. – assessed Kociszewski.
And he points out that in practice, Israel has opened a new front line.
For now, it is less active. But if any new authority in Syria wants to reclaim territories now occupied by the IDF, this can quickly change. There is currently a high risk that another conflict might break out there. For now, Israel has taken the risk at a low cost. From their point of view, it's profitable, but we do not know what may happen in the future. – concluded Jarosław Kociszewski, a Middle East expert.
Let's recall that Assad was overthrown by Sunni jihadists from the opposition group linked to Al-Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), along with supporting smaller organizations. The dictator evacuated to Moscow, where he received political asylum.
