Israel's resolve: Iran's missile blitz ends in defeat
The sight of dozens of rockets falling on air bases in Israel seemed like a spectacular success. In practice, it is a failure. Israel is forcefully dismantling pro-Iranian militias that have been built up over decades and were tools in Tehran's hands. Additionally, it now threatens a direct attack on the Islamic Republic. Iran has "achieved" a spectacular defeat in its confrontation with Israel.
Iran's missile forces launched about 181 rockets toward Israel, which were seen over Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and Palestinian territories within less than 10 minutes of flight. The spectacle undoubtedly bolstered the morale of Iran's supporters and Israel's enemies, showcasing the "long arm" of the Ayatollahs responding to the death of the Palestinian Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, killed by Israel in Tehran on July 31, or the Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, killed a month later in Beirut.
The attack was attempted to be thwarted by the air defenses of Israel, US forces in the Middle East, and Jordan. The Israelis claim that the third—highest—layer of their air defense, sometimes mistakenly referred to as the Iron Dome, destroyed most of the rockets. However, it was—as worth noting—not the third but the first layer of the system.
On the other hand, the Iranians believe that 80% - or even 90% - of the rockets reached their targets.
Footage showing dozens of rockets heading, falling, and exploding in Israel has reached the media. The targets were supposed to be air bases, and at least two of them - Nevatim in the Negev Desert and Tel Nof near Tel Aviv - were hit.
Despite dozens of explosions, only one person was killed in the attack, and paradoxically, it was a Palestinian - killed in Jericho on the West Bank by a falling rocket fragment. The Israelis, having learned from experience, take air raid alarms seriously and hide in shelters.
As a result, a few rockets that fell in cities did not kill anyone in Israel. According to pro-Iranian media, the rockets destroyed about 20 Israeli F-35 planes parked at the shelled bases, but there is no indication that this is true. Understanding that Israel would respond to such a spectacular attack, Tehran announced that although this retaliatory attack had ended, Iran would resume shelling if Israel went too far in its response.
Just a few months ago, this attack could have been seen positively. That was the case in May when Iran launched hundreds of rockets and various types of drones, most of which were shot down along the way, but the mere fact of striking Israel was perceived as a success. The current attack was much more effective and spectacular, yet it remains a measure of Iran's defeat and strategic weakening in the region.
Unlike the situation in the first half of the year, Israel has crushed the military forces of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, seized the strategic initiative, and is effectively dismantling Lebanese Hezbollah, Iran's most important ally in the region. In May, it seemed that in the event of a confrontation, Hezbollah would drown Israel in fire and blood - launching thousands of rockets daily.
Lebanon lost its entire high command
Meanwhile, unprecedented cooperation between Israeli intelligence and air forces has caused the Lebanese organization to lose its entire high command, and the functioning of this powerful militia has been severely disrupted. In recent days, only individual rockets are coming from Lebanon - instead of the thousands previously announced.
Moreover, a day before the Iranian attack, the Israeli army crossed another escalation threshold and entered Lebanese territory. Soldiers of the 98th Paratrooper Division, supported by the 7th Armored Brigade, began a "sanitary operation" to destroy Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon enough for Israelis to return safely to their homes in the north of the country.
In the order starting the offensive, Gen. Elad Tzuri, commander of the 7th Armored Brigade, told his soldiers that their task was simply to make contact and kill the enemy. This perfectly illustrates the determination of the Israelis, who believe that only their strength and determination will ensure their safety in their own country. The same principle applies to a broader view of the region.
After a year of war, Israelis dictate the pace and direction of events. They are convinced that they now have an unprecedented opportunity to destroy not only Hamas and Hezbollah but also change the balance of power in the region by weakening the Iranian threat.
Israel changes the rules of the game
The missile attack on Israel shows that the Iranians seem to underestimate the determination of the Israelis, who have changed the rules of the game. The place of bluffs and poker moves has been taken by brutal force, checking the cards of the bluffers. Dozens of rockets that did no harm to anyone or caused significant damage will not deny Israelis the initiative but will only increase their determination to strike the Ayatollah regime itself.
Only time will tell if they have prepared equally extraordinary "surprises," such as the pager attack that threw Hezbollah off-balance, allowing for continued systematic blows against this once-powerful organization.
For now, Iran has "achieved" a spectacular defeat in its confrontation with Israel.
