Massive blast rattles Russia: Ukraine's strike hits ammo depot

Specialists from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have discussed the Ukrainians' destruction of an ammunition depot in Tver Oblast, western Russia, which caused a minor earthquake. They believe this event will influence Russia's actions in Ukraine and significantly hinder their operations.

According to George William Herbert from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California, the largest explosion recorded in the city of Toropets was equivalent to 220-260 tons of explosives.

The explosions in the Russian ammunition depot were so large that they could be seen from space. Tremors of magnitude 2.8 on the Richter scale were recorded in the vicinity.

Ukrainian intelligence claims that the Russians stored Grad, S-300, and S-400 rockets, as well as ballistic missiles such as Iskander and North Korean KN-23, in the warehouses in Toropets. ISW analysts believe that destroying these extensive and valuable resources will cause significant problems for Russia. They recall the 2022 Ukrainian attack using HIMARS systems on Russian ammunition depots in temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, which forced the invaders to disperse their stocks and decrease their logistical efficiency.

According to ISW analysts, the West's final decision on allowing Ukrainians to use long-range weapons to attack targets within Russia will be crucial. The stance of the hesitant powers—the United States and the United Kingdom, which supply Ukraine with ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, respectively—will be especially important. These missiles can effectively strike targets hundreds of miles away while bypassing air defense systems.

"Russian forces may not have addressed vulnerabilities at many logistics facilities within Russia due to the sanctuary space that restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons have generated, although the Toropets facility is not within range of Western systems fired from Ukraine. The lifting of restrictions on the use of Western systems and the continued development of Ukraine's own long-range strike capabilities may allow Ukrainian forces to more effectively exploit such Russian vulnerabilities," notes ISW.

The attacked ammunition depot in Tver Oblast is located about 310 miles from the Ukrainian border. This is a distance that several models of Ukrainian drones can cover. Some sources suggest that the precise strike might have been carried out by a mysterious Palyanytsya, described as a project combining a missile and a drone. However, the Ukrainians have never disclosed its specifications. Additionally, they have long been using Bober and Rubaka drones and the UJ-22 Airborne. ISW experts believe that only in combination with Western weapons will this arsenal be able to impact Russia and hinder further offensives significantly.

"Ukrainian strikes against facilities within Russia could impact offensive operations throughout the theatre in Ukraine if Ukrainian forces have the materiel, capabilities, and permission to conduct such a strike campaign against logistics and support facilities within Russia at scale," adds ISW.

For example, the Storm Shadow cruise missiles are adapted for launching from aircraft and provide far greater striking power than drones. Each missile weighs about 1.4 tons, with 990 pounds allocated to the BROACH (Bomb Royal Ordnance Augmented Charge) warhead. They are capable of functioning in various modes—classic explosion upon impact, airburst explosion, or delayed explosion. Additionally, they are built using stealth technology. Their maximum range is about 310 miles.