Moldova's crossroads: EU aspirations face Russian resistance

The referendum is being called a "historic event" as it's intended to confirm the country's course toward closer ties with the EU.

Although the majority of Moldovans support joining the EU, and since Russia attacked Ukraine, openly pro-Russian politics have largely vanished from the Moldovan mainstream, Kremlin-oriented forces remain active. They exploit pro-Russian sentiments, primarily resorting to illegal actions.

European Commission spokesman Peter Stano stated on Friday, two days before the presidential elections and referendum in Moldova that Russia is trying to undermine democracy in the country. He emphasized that the people of Moldova will choose between a European path and Russian imperialism, stressing that this is a pivotal moment.

Just before the elections in Moldova, Russian hybrid activities have intensified, aiming to sabotage the policies of the pro-Western government. These actions include information campaigns and illegal funding on an unprecedented scale, targeting pro-Russian activists and politicians to buy votes.

In early October, police reported that just in September, Russia illegally sent more than $15 million to Moldova for voter bribery. The money was funneled into the country through intermediaries, originating from bank accounts in Russia, and activities were coordinated via bots on Telegram.

"I trust that Moldovans will never allow themselves to be deceived," said Prime Minister Dorin Recean in a speech on Thursday before the upcoming elections and referendum on Sunday. He warned against intensified attempts at electoral bribery by pro-Russian forces and appealed, "Dear citizens, do not fall into the trap of such banditry."

Kremlin-linked groups are exploiting the pro-Russian sentiments of some members of Moldovan society to manipulate the topic of EU accession. In an election video, three Russian entertainment stars sing "their heart is Moldova."

Recently, a campaign video was released featuring the highest-paid Russian entertainment stars – Filipp Kirkorov, Nikolay Baskov, and Stas Mikhaylov, who are Kremlin favorites and supporters of the war in Ukraine.

Kirkorov and Baskov, dressed in Moldovan folk costumes, sing in Romanian the song "Inima mea e Moldova," a song important to Moldovans about "their heart being Moldova." The backdrop includes picturesque Moldovan landscapes and the Orheiland amusement park built by Sora. When the EU is mentioned, images of a stern-faced Ursula von der Leyen, scenes from gay pride parades, protests on European streets, and photos of migrants storming the EU border are shown.

"We need an independent Moldova. We do not need the EU. Vote 'no'" reads a caption under the photo of wheat fields and a smiling girl with a wreath on her head.

According to polls published before the Sunday referendum on incorporating euro integration into the constitution, over half of Moldovans want to vote to join the EU.

The Watchdog survey, published on Thursday, shows that 55.1% of respondents would answer "yes" in the referendum, while 34.5% would oppose changing the constitution. At the same time, 63.5% of those surveyed support joining the EU, and 76.3% expressed their willingness to participate in the presidential elections and referendum.

"However, anti-EU sentiments in some regions, especially in Gagauzia, are concerning," said international affairs specialist Rodica Panta. "In traditionally pro-Russian autonomous Gagauzia, attitudes are the reverse. According to a recent poll, six out of 10 people are against the EU."

The paradox is that "in Gagauzia, the EU has invested tens of millions of euros, yet the aversion to the EU is highest there." "Indeed, there are plaques with the EU flag and informational boards, but most of them are in Romanian, a language not spoken there. The official narrative of the local authorities is that everything good comes from Russia," explained Panta.