NATO bolsters Baltic ops after cable break, Russia questioned

"It's typical northern weather," Commander Ilja Iljin laughs. I look at the deputy commander of the Gulf of Finland Coast Guard District and wonder about his good mood—the latest forecast calls for strong winds, an approaching snowstorm, and temperatures below freezing. We are about to set off to sea in such conditions.

For now, our RV90 patrol boat is docked at Katajanokka Island, the center of Helsinki. There are ice floes in the harbor. My imagination suggests the worst scenarios, such as falling overboard. At this water temperature—around 32 °F—it could result in severe hypothermia or, at worst, death. It only takes a few minutes.

Cmdr Iljin turns serious: "The first thing: a life jacket. If you want to be on deck, you must wear it. The second thing: If we receive a call to action at sea, we will sail immediately, and you must unconditionally follow orders."

After a brief briefing, we set off. The RV90, one of fifteen similar vessels in the service's fleet, can speed well over 37 mph. We quickly leave behind the characteristic building of the old casino in Helsinki and pass the icebreakers moored along the coast.

"There probably won't be any ice this winter, although nothing can be ruled out. I remember years when the Gulf of Finland froze only in February. Today is the coldest day of this week, but long-term forecasts mostly speak of above-freezing temperatures," the patrol boat commander remarks from his seat.

Initially, the water was quite calm, but after passing the island of Sveaborg, I was reminded that the RV90 is just a little over a 33-foot shell. As soon as the waves intensified, it became hard to stand, and my knuckles turned white from gripping the handles tightly. Going outside was out of the question. The waves lashed the deck, quickly covering it with a thin layer of ice.

"Welcome to the coast guard. Just another day," Iljin flashed his Finnish humor again.

The Gulf of Finland has become one of the hottest maritime areas in Europe and has attracted worldwide media attention. On Christmas, it experienced one of the most serious incidents related to critical underwater infrastructure—the EstLink2 underwater power cable connecting Finland with Estonia was severed.

The incident involved the tanker Eagle S, which was sailing from St. Petersburg to Egypt with a gasoline cargo. The ship, flying the Cook Islands flag, belongs to the Russian shadow fleet. This term refers to unofficial Russian maritime activities, particularly secret or suspicious operations of the commercial and military fleet.

The Finns stopped the tanker, who decided to board immediately, preventing the ship's escape. Since then, the "Eagle S" has been docked in an inaccessible bay east of Helsinki, unreachable from the land side. This "spot" is nothing unusual—Finland's Baltic coast differs significantly from the one we are familiar with. Instead of sandy beaches, it has thousands of islands, islets, and bays.

The Finnish Central Criminal Police is investigating the incident. On Tuesday, January 21, "Helsingin Sanomat" reported that investigators have not found evidence so far to suggest that "Eagle S" deliberately damaged the cable. Additionally, "The Washington Post," citing intelligence sources, reported that everything points to an accident. However, the investigation continues.

The seabed of the Gulf of Finland hosts numerous telecommunication and energy connections between Estonia and Finland. It also serves as the only route to Russian ports in St. Petersburg, Ust-Luga, and Kronstadt. This area is patrolled by the Finnish and Estonian coast guards.

A consequence of the EstLink2 cable break is the Baltic Sentry mission announced in Helsinki. NATO has decided to establish the Baltic Guard, which will protect critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. The group is already gathering off the coast of Estonia, including allied ships, reconnaissance aircraft, and underwater drones.

Baltic Sentry will not replace regular patrols and activities conducted by allied countries' regular coast guard or navy.

"The Coast Guard is not part of NATO operations, so it is a separate activity. We carry out our regular statutory tasks in the same area," emphasizes Ilja Iljin. "Our Coast Guard units patrol the waters daily on various boats and hovercraft. We don't do this 24 hours a day, but we don't limit ourselves to daytime patrols. We also have night patrols. Although floating patrols are not continuous, we conduct constant surveillance based on radars and cameras. If we need to look closely at something, we can send one of the boats or a patrol plane. That's our routine," he explains.

Cmdr Iljin points out that after the EstLink2 was severed, there was no significant increase in suspicious activity, as it is already high due to the nature of the maritime area.

"Regarding ship behavior, we have continually noticed strange movements, such as circling in an area or zigzagging maneuvers. However, some of what looks strange at first glance may be normal navigation behavior," says the Finn. "Ships sometimes wait for cargo at sea for long, so they may be anchored or performing routine maneuvers. We monitor and control this movement, but I do not see a particularly heightened risk if ships do not move in heavily trafficked areas."

"What about the recent events?" I ask. "Do you believe that the severing of the cable by Eagle S was an accident? Intelligence sources, as cited by 'The Washington Post,' indicate no evidence of sabotage."

"This incident is still under police investigation, and I am sure they will comment on it when the time is right," he replies.

"What does your experience tell you?"

"In the last few years, we had three similar incidents. Before that, there were none. That's my answer," the officer concludes.

Accusing Moscow of recent events in the Baltic may prove extremely difficult. Jukka Savolainen, director at the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, an international organization under the EU and NATO auspices, does not believe that Russia will be found guilty in this matter.

The Washington Post was published just days after NATO decided to create the Baltic Guard, an action that, according to the expert, is unlikely to encourage increased NATO involvement in the region.

"When do intelligence agencies disclose information?" Savolainen asks rhetorically. "They do this only when they have a good reason. They also do it at a specific political time. This is a typical case of misinformation. For some reason, those who wrote this article connected two statements. One is true, and the other is false. You combine them, and it seems that what was written is true," says the expert outright.

Savolainen indicates that 'evidence to prove Russia's involvement will probably not be found.' "If the agencies cannot prove it, how could I? This does not exclude the possibility of a hybrid operation by some state actors," he adds.

The interlocutor agrees with Gen. Pekka Toveri's assessment of the situation. The former head of Finnish military intelligence clearly stated in an American newspaper that he did not believe in an accident.

"I agree with what the general said: 'Bravo Sierra' [English equivalent of 'bullshit,' translated as 'complete nonsense']," he concludes.

On Sunday, January 26, another similar incident occurred in the Baltic. This time a fiber optic cable between the western coast of Latvia and the Swedish island of Gotland was damaged. "Vezhen," the vessel suspected in the incident, was taken over by the Swedes and directed near Karlskrona. The "Vezhen," flying the Maltese flag, is a bulk carrier owned by the Bulgarian company Navigation Maritime Bulgare. Published photos on Monday show that one of the ship's anchors is visibly damaged. Sweden has already launched an investigation into the matter.