North Korea bolsters Russia with arms and troops in the Ukraine war

The cooperation between Russia and North Korea isn't new. In June, Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang to negotiate a security partnership with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

There had been rumors of significant North Korean arms supplies, especially artillery shells. In 2023, Ukrainian Special Services HUR reported that a limited North Korean military contingent had arrived in the occupied territories of Ukraine.

Expert analyses and media reports are uncovering the increasing scale of this support. It's reported that since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, North Korea has supplied Russia with arms worth between $1.7 billion and $5.5 billion, mainly in artillery ammunition and short-range missiles.

Olena Guseinova from Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul cites this data in her study "Putin's Partners," conducted for the Friedrich Naumann Foundation. The research includes leaked intelligence reports and documents.

However, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un is not only assisting his Russian ally with weapons. According to NATO, North Korean soldiers are in Russia and may soon relieve Russian troops in the Kursk region.

Next year, as many as 12,000 North Koreans might fight on the Russian-Ukrainian front in exchange for much-needed foreign currency. The Friedrich Naumann Foundation anticipates revenues of several hundred million US dollars.

According to reports, some soldiers, possibly from special forces, have received Russian uniforms to conceal their identities. A DW fact-checking team confirmed that video footage from South Korean intelligence shows scenes in Russia's Eastern Military District. Neither Russia nor North Korea has confirmed these reports yet.

Currently, there is little concrete information amidst much speculation, says Nico Lange, a senior analyst at the Munich Security Conference (MSC), in an interview with DW. "But there is no doubt that North Koreans are in Russia for training," he added. "And there is also no doubt that for some time now (...) construction units of the North Korean armed forces have been active in the occupied territories in Ukraine," he states.

However, Lange warns that this doesn't automatically mean that 12,000 North Korean soldiers are fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine's trenches. "That's not what we've been observing so far," he notes.

This is a disturbing development from a Ukrainian perspective. That's why when Vladimir Putin presented himself as a respected host of the BRICS summit in Kazan last week, Kyiv grew increasingly concerned about continued support.

President Volodymyr Zelensky's so-called "victory plan" has not gained momentum. Ukraine must also consider the possibility that Donald Trump, who aims to reduce military aid, might win the US presidential election in early November. Trump recently even partially blamed Zelensky for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Zelensky made it clear over the weekend that his partners must respond now. "We cannot allow evil to grow. If the world remains silent now, and if we face North Korean soldiers on the front lines as regularly as we are defending against drones, it will benefit no one in this world and will only prolong this war," stressed the Ukrainian president.

The US response is currently considered decisive - after all, Washington is not only the largest supporter of Ukraine but also the protective power for South Korea. The US was also the first NATO member to address evidence of North Korean military presence in Russia. However, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin remained reserved, stating, "We are seeing evidence that that there are North Korean troops that have gone to Russia. What, exactly, they’re doing is left to be seen," during a visit to Rome.

This issue will likely be a concern primarily for the next US administration under Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. MSC expert Nico Lange believes Europe will also wait for the US elections on November 5.

"At the moment, I don't see the major European states coming together to develop a common strategy: What do we want to achieve in Ukraine? How will we deal with Russia and Russia's supporters? How can we achieve this together? That's what we'd need," says Lange.

NATO's spokeswoman in Brussels stated that if North Korean troops were to fight in Ukraine, it would mean "a significant escalation of North Korea's support for Russia's illegal war and another indicator of Russia's losses at the front." She added that the Alliance is discussing how to proceed further.

Roderich Kiesewetter, a foreign policy expert of Germany's largest opposition party in the Bundestag—CDU—believes that Europe's lack of response to the deployment of North Korean troops is a "fatal oversight." He added that a united and decisive reaction of force and deterrence is necessary.

In response to DW's inquiry, Kiesewetter wrote, "Many European countries have wanted this for a long time." Kiesewetter reiterated demands to lift restrictions on the range of supplied weapons, provide Ukraine with additional powerful systems, and issue an invitation to NATO.

As soon as signs of tightening Russian-North Korean cooperation began to emerge, DW spoke with Andrei Lankov, a professor of history and international relations at Kookmin University in Seoul.

He mentioned that Russia can use soldiers from North Korea to avoid mobilization. "War is generally popular in Russia, but only if most people do not participate in hostilities and the war does not affect their daily lives," emphasized Lankov. In his view, fewer and fewer people in Russia are willing to sacrifice their lives, even for the financial benefits offered by military contracts.

In return, North Korea seeks money and technology. "Contract soldiers in the Russian army receive $2,000 a month plus a one-time bonus that can reach up to $20,000. Pyongyang would be happy to receive at least half of this amount for each soldier sent," says Lankov. Modern technology is equally desirable.

"Under other circumstances, Russia would never be willing to share technology with an unstable country like North Korea, but now it has no choice."

However, the expert believes this cooperation won't last. After the war's end in Ukraine, relations will likely revert to their previous state as North Korea's economic importance to Moscow diminishes.