Polls shift as Trump gains edge in final election weeks
Two weeks before the presidential election in the United States, none of the candidates has a clear advantage. However, polls that recently favored Kamala Harris and some early voting data now indicate trends favorable to former President Donald Trump.
After more than a year of campaigning in the U.S., only two weeks remain until the day determining who will govern the world's largest economy. Predicting the winner of this election remains as uncertain as the outcome of a coin toss.
According to the poll average compiled by "The New York Times," Vice President Kamala Harris still has a slight advantage—amounting to 1 percentage point—over Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, the poll averages in all seven "swing" states, which will effectively decide the election outcome, fall within the margin of error. They range from 2 percentage points in favor of Trump in Arizona to less than 1 percentage point in the other six. In the three largest of these states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina—the difference is within 0.2 percentage points.
Despite the close race in the poll results, recent weeks have shown a clear, though slight, shift toward Donald Trump in most of these states, as well as in national surveys. Just two weeks ago, Harris's poll advantage averaged 3 percentage points, and according to the "NYT" average, she was leading in four of the seven states; today, it's Trump who has a slight advantage in four.
Following these changes, the forecasts of statistical models from most centers, which, a month before the election, gave Harris slightly better chances of winning, today give Trump slightly better odds. Decision Desk HQ's model changed its race assessment on Sunday, for the first time since Harris's candidacy was announced, giving Trump a 52% chance of winning. "The Economist" magazine's model estimates Trump's chances at 54%, the popular FiveThirtyEight website's model at 52%, while the model of well-known analyst Nate Silver gives Trump 53%.
Gamblers betting on outcomes in online markets, such as Polymarket, founded by right-wing billionaire Peter Thiel, also show more confidence in the Republican candidate's victory, with current odds suggesting a 62% chance for Trump. However, as reported by the "Wall Street Journal" last week, this result includes a significant bet by an unknown investor who wagered $30 million on Trump.
As in previous years, the accuracy of these forecasts largely depends on how faithfully public opinion polls reflect the situation. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was a clear favorite according to polls, but they underestimated the Republican electorate.
Four years later, Joe Biden's polling advantage was even greater. Still, the biggest polling errors at the state level were larger, and ultimately, the election outcome was decided by fewer than 80,000 votes across three states. In the 2022 Congressional and state elections—as well as in special elections and referendums that took place after the Supreme Court decided to overturn the nationwide right to abortion—Democratic candidates were almost always underestimated.
Democrats also believe that the recent shift in polls towards Trump is due to a "flood" of low-quality polls by firms associated with Republicans.
