Putin's dilemma: Fear of post-war uncertainty in Russia
The war in Ukraine, now nearly three years long, has placed Russia at the forefront of countries facing sanctions. It has also resulted in losses reaching 600,000 people. Although politicians and wealthy entrepreneurs are weary of the conflict, its potential conclusion stirs genuine fear, according to sources close to Putin, as reported by Meduza.
A source close to the Kremlin says, "It is difficult to predict how life will be after the end of the special operation. What goals will the state have? Currently, the priority is the war, but after it ends, there will be a need to think about the future, strategy, and objectives—this evokes genuine fear," the source adds.
State Duma elections
Russia is also approaching elections to the State Duma. Currently, there is uncertainty about what will happen with the war. If the war is ongoing, then a force rooted in ultra-patriotism will be needed—akin to a new or updated "A Just Russia," say those close to the Kremlin.
If the war ends, moderate forces will be required. What terms will mark the end? Much depends on that as well, particularly the United Russia program. They add that the restoration of new territories or a return to the pre-war standard of living should be prioritized.
A spokesperson for the ruling party notes that the composition of the United Russia list will depend on the situation at the front.
"No one desires an eternal conflict"
On one hand, everyone is tired and would like the war to end. No one desires an eternal conflict. Some may insist that peace must be achieved on Russia's terms, but this is still a vision of peace. A Kremlin source indicates that this sentiment has intensified following the Ukrainian attacks on the Kursk region.
Big businesses also feel the uncertainty; due to sanctions, Russian entrepreneurs have lost access to Western markets, decreasing their income and investment opportunities. Despite cooperation with countries like China and Turkey, which also partially adhere to Western restrictions, the situation is unlikely to change after the war.
The economic promises of Russia's sovereign future remain unfulfilled. Difficulties with the production of airplanes, tankers, and industrial technologies highlight limitations. Six months ago, studies revealed that half of Russian enterprises could not find domestic replacements for imported machines, and many faced challenges acquiring them even from "friendly" countries.
Putin's war economy
Although significant investments in the arms industry create an illusion of growth, the International Monetary Fund forecasts that starting in 2025, Russian GDP will decrease to 1.3 percent, and the Bank of Russia warns of possible stagnation. Meanwhile, the government aims to increase budget revenues, spending every third ruble on the war. A new tax reform for 2025 will generate an additional 3.6 trillion rubles.
However, these measures may prove insufficient, economist Natalia Orlova warns, predicting that soon there will be a need to seek additional income. Elina Rybakova from the Peterson Institute for International Economics notes that ending the war may be just as challenging for the economy as the ongoing conflict.
Defense expenditures account for 6 percent of GDP, and reducing them would raise questions about the future of workers and factories reoriented to wartime production.
