Russia faces critical military shortages as wartime losses mount
Russia is struggling with substantial losses of military equipment on the battlefields, which threatens the depletion of Soviet stockpiles, currently the main source of replenishments. Additionally, the production of new tanks is limited due to the lack of Western components, according to a report by "The Washington Post."
Experts suggest that the Russian war economy has already reached its peak and is probably unable to maintain its current production pace.
Putin is losing more equipment than he produces
According to American officials and analysts who shared their assessments with "The Washington Post," the Russian army is losing more tanks and howitzers each month than domestic factories can produce. The increasing pressure on the Russian economy may ultimately lead to the shutdown of some assembly lines.
This problem is further exacerbated by technology degradation due to sanctions, which increases combat losses, and the gradual restriction of smuggling channels. It is estimated that as early as next year, Russia may face significant shortages of tanks.
According to data from Oryx, which documents confirmed military equipment losses, Russia has already lost:
- over 3,600 tanks,
- 279 howitzers,
- about 1,000 self-propelled artillery systems and mortars.
Total losses in armored vehicles amount to about 11,100 units.
Sanctions weaken production
American officials emphasize that sanctions are working, gradually weakening Russia's ability to produce arms. "Even if they are able to get around the sanctions, there are added costs," noted Max Bergmann, director of the "Europe, Russia, and Eurasia" program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. However, he added that Russia is focusing on mass production, trying to compensate for deficiencies in weapon quality.
Modernization instead of new machines
The production of tanks and howitzers in Russia currently largely relies on modernizing old Soviet equipment and dismantling it for spare parts. London's Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimate that up to 85% of tanks and armored vehicles sent to the front lines are refurbished or modified machines from storage. However, satellite images of warehouses and scrapyards of military equipment indicate that these reserves are dwindling.
According to George Barros, head of the Russia group at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), at the current rate of equipment loss, Russia may face a significant tank shortage by the end of 2025, which will have enormous consequences for operations on the front line.
A similar opinion is expressed by Pawel Luzin, a military expert associated with the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He believes that Russia's ability to repair reserve tanks and infantry fighting vehicles will be exhausted in the second half of 2025.
Dwindling reserves
An analysis of satellite images conducted last summer by The Moscow Times revealed that since the beginning of the war, over 40% of old Soviet tanks and armored personnel carriers have been withdrawn from Russia's largest military equipment storage base in Buryatia.
In some cases, the effects of sanctions can be directly observed on military equipment. The latest models of the most advanced Russian T-90M tank are rolling off production lines without the laser-guidance sensor mounted on the turret, which helps the crew aim precisely.
"Beginning late last year, the sensors mysteriously disappeared," noted Michael Gjertstad, a military analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), who was one of the first to point this out. In his view, the absence of these devices undoubtedly is "to the detriment of the survivability of the crew".
According to data from Oryx, Russia has already lost 120 T-90M tanks. At the same time, from the start of the war to mid-2024, a total of 175 of these machines have been delivered to the front.
Even the Russian Ministry of Economic Development indirectly admits to the reduction in military equipment production. According to materials presented to the State Duma as part of the budget bill, an almost complete halt in the growth of weapons production (hidden under categories of selected types of economic activity) is expected.
While the production of "other means of transport and equipment" increased by 30.2% in 2023 and 15.1% in 2024, in 2025 the expected growth is only 5%.
