Russia hints at Baltic conflict to protect Kaliningrad: Experts warn
The Russian authorities are beginning to prepare their citizens for the possibility of an attack on the Baltic states, citing the need to protect the Kaliningrad region, according to an analysis by the Moscow Times based on Vladimir Putin's statements made on Wednesday.
During a meeting with regional heads, the Russian president stated that it is important for the Kaliningrad region to be "integrated into Russian society and the Russian economy." Putin emphasized that there should be "'no barriers' to the movement of Russian citizens between mainland Russia and Kaliningrad Oblast."
Putin's comments about maintaining Kaliningrad's cultural and social ties to Russia are likely aimed at his domestic audience, although Putin may be setting conditions for future Russian aggression against the Baltic States under the guise of defending Kaliningrad Oblast – assessed the portal, quoting analyses by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The Moscow Times also reminded us that shortly after the commencement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Kaliningrad region came under a partial blockade. Lithuania restricted the transit of goods through its territory, but Vilnius lifted these restrictions under pressure from the European Commission.
The Institute for the Study of War also pointed out that the military-administrative reform in February may be a clue that the Kremlin is preparing for a future conflict with NATO. At that time, the military districts of Moscow and Leningrad, which were dissolved at the beginning of 2010, were reorganized.
ISW experts wrote in their analysis that these changes are aimed not only at consolidating control over Russian operations in Ukraine but also at "preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO."
It is worth recalling that Russian propaganda television has repeatedly threatened attacks on many countries, including Poland, Finland, and Lithuania.
Russia has been conducting a full-scale war in Ukraine since February 2022. Although Putin might have expected a quick victory, he has still not captured a significant part of the country. Ukrainian soldiers have also entered border regions in Russia and are attacking, among others, the Kursk region.
