Russian advance stalls as Ukrainians launch bold counterattacks

The Russian operational pause is now in its second week. Heavy fighting, ongoing since November, has taken a toll on both sides. Currently, the Russians are only conducting offensive actions near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Chasiv Yar. However, their intensity is significantly lower compared to two weeks ago. The Russians are merely trying to maintain constant pressure on positions where they made some progress at the end of January.

Across the entire active front, which is about 30 to 40 miles wide, there are around 100 combat engagements daily, with approximately 30 to 40% happening in the Pokrovsk direction. Here, the Russians are attempting to reach the Donetsk Oblast border. For the Kremlin, this section of the front mainly holds propaganda significance. Near Pokrovsk, they are closest to the Donetsk Oblast border, and the "liberation" of it in its entirety is one of Vladimir Putin's promises. Currently, they are just 1 to 2 miles from the border.

As expected, the Russians have recently struck along the T0406 road and the highway connecting Solone with Novoserhiivka in an effort to reach their objective as quickly as possible. However, reaching the border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts has no tactical significance. Although these actions do not facilitate the capture of Pokrovsk, they fuel Kremlin propaganda.

For now, however, the attackers are not advancing westward. The Ukrainians have not only strengthened their defense but also begun conducting local counterattacks, pushing the aggressors northeast of the city to switch to a defensive stance.

The Russians finally managed to capture all of Velyka Novosilka, although the Kremlin had previously announced its capture several times. However, they failed to secure it completely, and the Ukrainian units in this sector retained their operational capabilities. The subunits withdrew behind the Mokri Yaly River. Therefore, Russian claims and videos suggesting the supposed encirclement of Ukrainian soldiers turned out to be fictitious.

Moreover, Ukrainian cover units remained on the eastern bank of the river, continuing to carry out counterattacks to prevent the Russians from crossing. This situation may prove problematic for another reason: the absence of bridging equipment and the unexpected possibility of thaws at this time of year.

The Russians are faring even worse in reclaiming the occupied lands of the Kursk Oblast. After suffering heavy losses, North Korean units were withdrawn to the second line to await reinforcements. The rotation of Russian units is also underway, which the Ukrainians have decided to exploit.

A big surprise for the Russians was the Ukrainian strike southeast of Sudzha. Ukrainians launched an attack with a reinforced mechanized battalion battle group supported by tanks. They managed to wedge themselves between the airborne regiment and the mechanized unit, penetrating almost 5 miles into Russian positions. The Russians managed to slow and stop the attack only after deploying the 177th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade.

The strike slightly improved the tactical situation for the Ukrainians in the eastern part of the bulge, but the Russians are still trying to reclaim lost ground, mainly attacking from the northwest along the Rylsk–Korenyovo–Sudzha highway. The Russians will certainly push again in the coming weeks to retake Sudzha. This time, however, Putin has not set any "final deadlines."

Nonetheless, the Kremlin will attempt at all costs to reclaim the land. Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, stated that "Russia never considered and will not consider the issue of exchanging its territory. Obviously, Ukrainian units will be expelled from this land. Those who are not destroyed will be expelled."

Despite continuous Russian pressure on key sections, significant differences can be seen in the offensive operations compared to the January battles. Assault units are attacking narrower sections, using smaller forces, often without tank support and only with infantry fighting vehicles for fire support. This is clear evidence of the depletion of human and equipment resources.

Meanwhile, the scale of Ukrainian counterattacks in the past week suggests that Kyiv is gradually deploying units that began forming last year. They aim to capitalize on the temporary weakening of the Russians to improve their defensive positions before the opponent resumes offensive operations.

The downside of this tactic is that it can quickly exhaust available forces. Counterattacks, by definition, result in greater personnel and equipment losses than static defense. The Ukrainian command is aware of this, and as soldiers report, operations are precisely planned. This holds significant importance, as the Russians still have a numerical advantage, which they can leverage to neutralize the Ukrainians' qualitative edge.