Russian advances in Donetsk stall amid heavy losses
The Russians, experiencing significant losses, are striving to reach the borders of the Donetsk region at any cost. They aim to fulfill Vladimir Putin's promise to "liberate" this area. They are closest to the border near Pokrovsk—just over 1 mile away.
After capturing Velyka Novosilka, Russian media is ecstatic. They completely ignore the fact that strategically, the success is questionable—it's merely the seat of a municipality, which had about 7,000 residents before the war. It's comparable to a town the size of Czaplinek in West Pomerania or Paczków in Opole.
The Russians attempted to capture this urban-type settlement back in 2014 but failed. They attacked again in March 2022, but they were repelled after eleven days of fighting. Since then, the town has been regularly shelled, and residents have slowly left. Before the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, only 300 remained mostly elderly people who refused to evacuate.
After the fall of Vuhledar in September 2024, the situation in the Velyka Novosilka area became quite complicated. The Russians crossed the Kashlagach River west of Vuhledar and advanced in the Zolota Nyva area toward the Sucha Yala River, creating a direct threat to Ukrainian forces near Kurakhove.
Despite the threat of encirclement and contrary to Russian propaganda, which claimed Ukrainian soldiers were trapped and perishing in the cellars of Velyka Novosilka, they withdrew at the last moment, exploiting the Russians' lower mobility. Currently, Kremlin propaganda also claims that soldiers of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade are encircled and dying in Velyka Novosilka's basements. The truth is that although the unit suffered significant losses, it managed to withdraw in an organized manner and move the defensive line beyond the Mokra Yala River.
Out of breath
After capturing Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka, Russians stopped further attacks on this front segment, limiting themselves to sending patrols. The scale of combat engagements decreased by about 70%. This results from the exhaustion of their units after nearly three months of fighting and the enormous losses they have suffered. With limited reserves behind the frontlines, this forced an operational pause on the entire previously active front segment.
Just two weeks ago, there were over 200 combat engagements daily. Last week, the Russians attacked 30-50% less frequently. The exception was January 28, when there were 193 combat engagements. Half of these occurred near Pokrovsk, where the Russians are still trying to reach the borders of the Donetsk region.
Pokrovsk's segment has become key for Russian propaganda. Vladimir Putin announced that the main goal of the "special military operation"—as the Russians still call the war in Ukraine—is the "liberation" of the Donetsk region. The Russians are closest to reaching its borders near Pokrovsk. Currently, they are just over one mile from the border, which runs from Novosergiivka along the river to Biliakivka.
Propaganda goal
Once they reach it, the Kremlin will be able to proclaim a success once again. Therefore, the Russians still do not directly attack Pokrovsk, focusing instead on cutting the defenders' supply lines. Currently, they are advancing best southwest of the city, where they are moving under the urban-type settlement of Zvyrove and Udachne along the Donetsk Railway embankment on the southeastern outskirts of the town. The Russians also captured Uspenivka and Novovasylivka.
The Russians will likely try to strike along road T0406 and the highway connecting Solone with Novosergiivka to reach their target as quickly as possible. However, reaching the border between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions has no tactical significance. It will not facilitate capturing Pokrovsk and will only serve as material for Kremlin propaganda.
The Kremlin's priorities are evident in the frequency of strikes on a given tactical segment and the forces and resources deployed. After capturing Velyka Novosilka, some supplies of ammunition and fuel were transferred to Pokrovsk.
The 55th Guards Motorized Rifle Mountain Brigade and the 74th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are attacking to the southwest of the city. Both are highly experienced. They fought first near Chernihiv, then along the Donets, and near Avdiivka.
Despite suffering severe losses, they received support from tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Units fighting in less important directions cannot afford such resources. Consequently, the situation is slightly less favorable for the Russians on the eastern segment, where they unsuccessfully attempt to break through near Myrnohrad.
Building an advantage
Russians still have not achieved significant success in the Kursk region but are building an increasing numerical and equipment advantage. More units are being drawn to the combat area, bringing heavy equipment, which is increasingly rare outside the main combat directions.
To the northwest and east of Sudja, Russians and North Koreans under Kim Jong Un regularly attack. Ukrainians respond with counterattacks, and the area changes hands several times daily. Heavy fighting mainly occurs around the urban settlement of Sverdlikovo, located on the Rylsk–Koreniv–Sudja road, one of the two main roads leading to Sudja.
Capturing Sverdlikovo, about 9 miles from Sudja, would allow the Russians to secure a vital communication hub and establish a staging point, significantly improving the logistics of their fighting units.
Despite increasingly strong attacks, Ukrainian defense lines are holding well. In recent weeks, the Russians have regained only two villages. The Russians are performing much better at capturing land in Ukraine than reclaiming their own in the Kursk region.
