Russian airspace crisis: Airlines reassess flight routes
The Azerbaijan Airlines plane disaster, which occurred on Wednesday when the aircraft was hit by a Russian air defense missile and crashed in Kazakhstan, has sparked a discussion about the safety of civilian flights over Russia. Some airlines still operate these flights.
"The airspace over Russia must be closed," wrote Gunduz Mamedov, a Ukrainian lawyer from Azerbaijan, on the Ukrainska Prawda portal on Saturday. Mamedov served as the Deputy Prosecutor General of Ukraine from 2019 to 2022 and led Ukrainian investigative teams regarding attacks on passenger planes in 2014 and 2020.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, long-range drones can currently target areas up to 1,243 miles within Russia. Mamedov stated that the failure to close Russian airspace to civilian aviation "poses a serious risk to passengers, given the potential for errors or incidents involving air defense systems."
Temporary flight restrictions in Russia
Russia has introduced temporary flight restrictions in the cities of Sochi, Kazan, Samara, Grozny, and Makhachkala. On Thursday, all four Moscow airports were temporarily closed for "security reasons," with no specific details provided.
Despite the war situation, the Kremlin has not closed its airspace, and many airlines from various parts of the world continue to fly over or to Russia. Since February 24, 2022, when the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, the vast majority of carriers have suspended connections with Russia.
Flights to and within Russian airspace are still conducted by Turkish Airlines, Air Serbia, Belavia, Egyptair, Air Algerie, Qatar Airways, Air Arabia, Emirates, and Flydubai, although the latter canceled two flights to southern Russian cities on Friday. Among the operators of such connections are also those from Asia, like Air China, China Eastern, Uzbekistan Airways, and Air India. However, no airline from the Americas or Oceania conducts such flights.
Plane crash in Kazakhstan and demands toward Russia
After Wednesday's downing of an Azerbaijani plane by a Russian air defense missile, several airlines suspended connections with Russia. National carriers of Azerbaijan (AZAL) and Kazakhstan (Qazaq Air), as well as Israeli airline El Al, canceled flights to this country. Additionally, Fly Dubai, a low-cost carrier from the United Arab Emirates, suspended connections with Russia. Starting Monday, regular flights between Moscow and Ashgabat, the capital of Turkmenistan, will be suspended for a month.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin apologized on Saturday to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for the "tragic incident" that occurred in Russian airspace. However, he did not directly acknowledge that a Russian missile caused the downing.
"The responsible party must not only apologize but also provide compensation to the families of the victims and those affected," informed Aliyev on Sunday.
Confirmation that the plane was shot down by Russian air defense would provide another argument for the need to close Russian airspace to civilian flights, stated Mamedov. He added that the Kremlin opposes this as it would have negative economic and political consequences for it.
Open Russian airspace for everyone?
Airlines from countries such as China still use Russian airspace. This allows them to have shorter flight times on routes between Europe and Asia by several hours compared to EU airlines that have to avoid Russian territory.
"Russian airspace should be open to everyone," said Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), in June.
This is because the so-called Polar Routes, which pass over Siberia, are the shortest routes connecting Western Europe and the Far East. According to ICAO data, Russia earned $1.7 billion in 2019 from overflight fees, more than any other country in the world.
However, it is possible that the Azerbaijan Airlines plane disaster may prompt carriers to change their approach, shifting from advocating open Russian airspace to everyone to closing it to those flying to Europe.
"We are not allowed to cross Russia but Chinese carriers are. If you want a level playing field, we need to ensure any airline landing in Europe avoids Russian airspace. Until that happens there will be enormous advantages to Chinese carriers," thundered Carsten Spohr, chairman of the Lufthansa Group, the largest carrier in Europe, in October.
Attacks on passenger planes: EASA data
In its latest annual report, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) emphasized that although the number of aviation accidents dropped significantly after 1970, there has been an increase in fatalities related to "unlawful acts" since 2014. In the last decade, these incidents accounted for one-fourth of the total fatalities in aviation, calculates EASA.
In recent years, attacks on passenger planes have been related to Russia and Ukraine. In October 2001, Ukrainian armed forces accidentally shot down a Tu-154M aircraft of Sibir Airlines during exercises in Crimea on a route from Tel Aviv, Israel, to Novosibirsk, Russia. Although initially, the Ukrainian side did not admit guilt, it ultimately took responsibility for the deaths of 78 people on board.
The most infamous disaster occurred on July 17, 2014, when pro-Russian separatists in Donbas shot down a Boeing 777 belonging to Malaysia Airlines en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur. There were 298 people on board, including 193 citizens of the Netherlands, all of whom perished.
After the disaster, airlines began avoiding flights over eastern Ukraine. After Russia's invasion of that country in 2022, Ukraine closed its airspace to civilian flights. Three years after the tragedy, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) issued guidelines for the first time to assess the risk of travel over conflict zones.
In January 2020, the Iranian military mistakenly shot down a Ukraine International Airlines plane with 176 people on board as it flew from Tehran to Kyiv. The accident occurred shortly after Iran attacked American military bases in Iraq in response to the killing of General Qasem Soleimani, one of Iran's most influential commanders, by the U.S.
UN human rights expert Agnes Callamard on the anniversary of this attack assessed that the international community must establish clear, distinct, and unambiguous standards regarding when states should close the airspace within their jurisdiction.
She added that in situations of military tension, even if they are not recognized as armed conflicts, the best way to prevent attacks on civilian flights is simply to close the airspace.
The expert, who now heads Amnesty International, urged that if states do not act responsibly to close the airspace within their jurisdiction or restrict flights, it is the duty of other states and airlines to take immediate measures to limit carriers' flights over or near conflict zones.
