Russian artillery buildup: Kursk braces for fierce standoff
In the Kursk region, the Russians have brought "nuclear" artillery, tanks, and armored personnel carriers from the Donbas. This may indicate that Russian towns and villages could now suffer the same fate as areas in Ukraine that have been devastated. The cost is irrelevant; the primary goal is to displace Ukrainians.
The Kursk Military Group is struggling to meet Vladimir Putin's deadlines to reclaim lands lost in August after the Ukrainian offensive. Initially, they were expected to achieve this by the end of September, then by mid-November. Now Putin has given them an "ultimate" deadline until the inauguration of Donald Trump, which is by January 20.
Meanwhile, the Russians have about 270 square miles left to recapture out of almost 500 square miles. Even if the troops, led directly by Deputy Defense Minister General Yunus-bek Yevkurov, were to break all records in their advance, they still wouldn't succeed by the set date.
After occupying parts of the Kursk region, Ukrainians have constructed field fortifications in several places, against which Russian attacks are failing. Additionally, they are conducting further counterattacks, locally pushing Russians from captured territories. This week, the main news in Russian media was about capturing the ruins of Kurakhove, successful engagements in Toretsk, and halting another Ukrainian attack in the Kursk region.
"At about 9:00 am Moscow time, in order to halt the advance of Russian troops in the Kursk direction, the enemy launched a counterattack," reported the Russian Ministry of Defense.
In response, the artillery and aviation of the Russian Armed Forces began an attack, during which two tanks, one armored vehicle, and seven infantry fighting vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were destroyed, they added.
Kremlin propaganda continuously asserts that Ukrainians are suffering heavy losses and that the "invincible army" is driving them across the border. This is a half-truth, as the situation for the Russians is quite complicated, and news of retaking captured villages is still scarce.
Russians have problems
Although the Russians regained about 40% of the lost territory by the end of the year, by January 2025, they are having trouble advancing further. Furthermore, following further counteroffensives, Ukrainian units moved south from the village of Bierdin to the center of the Ruskie Porechne settlement and the center of Novosotnitsky, expanding the controlled bulge northeast of Sudzha by 3 to 4 miles.
Fierce battles are taking place over both locations, but the Russians make progress only to subsequently retreat. Additionally, the intense fighting has caused heavy losses, forcing the longest-serving brigades to be withdrawn. For instance, in mid-August, the 155th and 810th Independent Guards Naval Infantry Brigades were deployed to the Kursk region. After intense fighting in November and December, both lost more than half of their personnel and equipment.
As if that wasn't enough, on December 25 and January 7, Ukrainian rocket artillery executed a precise attack on the command post of the 810th brigade. The Russian losses are unknown, but it was after the second attack that the withdrawal of brigades from the front began.
It is still unknown which units will replace them. What is certain, however, is that a larger-scale operation will begin only once their arrival is secured.
For now, the Russians are bringing more heavy artillery to the Kursk region to destroy Ukrainian fortifications. This marks a tactical shift observed in the second half of last year. During this time, the Russians ceased shelling wide front segments with artillery barrages and began targeting narrowly focused attack lanes. Only after this scorched earth approach were small groups of soldiers sent in to eliminate any remaining defenders.
This large-scale tactic was employed by the Russians during World War II, and during the Russian Federation, it was applied in the attack on Grozny 30 years ago.
The most glaring examples in recent years include Mariupol, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. The cities were destroyed by more than 90 percent. Despite considering these to be Russian cities, the Russians showed no concern for the destruction. Will they be concerned in the case of Sudzha? That seems doubtful.
City destroyers
Ukrainians around Sudzha have built field fortifications similar to those in Bakhmut and Vuhledar. The Russians struggled to capture these locations for a long time, so they focused on destroying infrastructure and communication routes, sending infantry into the ruins. At that time, they used rocket artillery and the heaviest tube artillery. The key role was played by the "nuclear guns" 2S7 Pion, with a 203 mm caliber.
Today, no one expects the 2S7 Pion to create "nuclear" corridors. Currently, they are used to destroy fortifications and break up cities. A 243-pound explosive shell can create a crater 16 feet deep in the ground or demolish a small single-family house. Now North Korean M-1989 Koksan guns have joined Russian artillery. Photos of the first units in combat positions appeared in early January.
Given the Russians' previous use of artillery, one can expect Sudzha to meet a similar fate as Bakhmut or Vuhledar. Especially since it is a small town of five thousand inhabitants. The Russians have repeatedly proven that they are indifferent to any costs in achieving their goals.
