Russian forces doubled pace in Donbas; 20 villages captured

The Russian army has rapidly accelerated its offensive in the Donbas following the Ukrainian Armed Forces' invasion of the Kursk region. "As of the end of August, the pace of the Russian troops' advance was almost 12 square miles per day," estimate analysts from the Finnish group Black Bird, based on maps from the Ukrainian project DeepState.

According to calculations by the Black Bird group, the speed at which Russian forces are moving has doubled in the last four weeks and continues to increase. In June and July, it was 2-4 square miles per day, and by mid-August, it had already increased to 6-8 square miles.

As noted by the "Financial Times," within three weeks of the Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk region, Russian forces had captured at least 20 villages. According to estimates by the Black Bird Group, they are now only 5 miles from Pokrovsk, a key logistic point through which the Ukrainian group in the Donetsk region is supplied.

"Now, the entire central Donetsk frontline sector is under threat of collapsing," writes military analyst Julian Ropcke of "Bild." "Russian forces [are] advancing in the north and south and hence flanking Ukrainian units in the center," he adds.

Recently, Ukrainian troops left Kalinovo and Memryk. On Friday, they lost another 3 square miles near Karlivka. "The domino effect between Donetsk city and Pokrovsk continues," adds Ropcke.

The "Kursk operation" by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which shocked the Kremlin and the General Staff and lowered Vladimir Putin's ratings to a record low since the beginning of the war, did not achieve its goal of diverting Russian forces from the front in the Donbas.

"Pokrovsk and other areas in the Donetsk region are extremely difficult: the key Russian efforts and the largest forces are concentrated there," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky admitted in a speech on August 28. The 20,000-strong city "will fall much faster than Bakhmut did," wrote the Financial Times, quoting one of the Ukrainian soldiers fighting near Pokrovsk. Earlier, the authorities announced the evacuation of the population from the city and nearby villages.

"Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, attributed the Russian gains to a shortage of experienced Ukrainian infantry and the diversion of resources to the Kursk offensive," reports the Financial Times. "Ukraine committed reserves to Kursk, leaving fewer options to plug gaps elsewhere. Some of the more experienced brigades have been replaced by newer, less experienced units," explains Lee.

Sources close to the Kremlin informed Bloomberg last week that the Kremlin decided not to move forces from Donbas to the Kursk region. According to them, Putin sent conscripts to Kursk, whose army number is estimated to be 300,000.