Russian gas crisis deepens: Transnistria freezes, Europe braces
The first victims of the new phase of the gas crisis are the residents of pro-Russian Transnistria, while Slovakia and Hungary may also face difficulties. However, the issue does not stop there. The potential halting of Russian gas transit through the Ukrainian pipeline could become a bargaining chip in discussions about Ukraine's future and a ceasefire.
"To keep the room warm, seal the cracks in the windows and balcony doors, hang blankets or thick curtains over them. Place all family members in one room, temporarily closing the rest of the rooms," advises the government of the separatist and pro-Russian Republic of Transnistria. On January 1, Ukraine stopped the transit of Russian gas, resulting in residents of the region, detached from Moldova, having their central heating and hot water shut off.
As of now, heating has been suspended for 14 days, with further developments still unclear, according to announcements from the energy company Tirasteploenergo. Transnistria is currently being helped by favorable weather forecasts. Daytime temperatures are expected to reach 46-50 degrees Fahrenheit, but on Saturday night, the temperature in Tiraspol, the capital of Transnistria, is expected to drop to 23 degrees Fahrenheit. People are advised to gather in one room and use electric heaters, but only with moderation to prevent fires and avoid overloading the electrical grid, according to reports from media in neighboring Moldova.
It's worth recalling that in 2022, the Russian gas giant Gazprom released a propaganda film depicting EU countries descending into chaos and cold. "Winter will be harsh," was stated in Gazprom's materials, which showed ice-bound cities, EU flags, and a gas stove's flame extinguishing. These materials were interpreted as blackmail by Vladimir Putin in response to sanctions against Russia for its actions in Ukraine.
Gas not flowing: Russia's last clients in trouble
Currently, the Russians acknowledge losing the ability to sell gas through a third pipeline leading westwards (the Baltic Nord Stream has been damaged, and the Yamal pipeline through Poland has been shut off). "Due to the repeated and explicit refusal of the Ukrainian side to extend these agreements, Gazprom was deprived of the technical and legal possibility to supply gas for transit through the territory of Ukraine starting from January 1, 2025," stated the company in a communication. They blame Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky and Kyiv politicians decided not to extend the agreement to ensure "Russia would incur financial losses" and cut one of its sources of war funding.
"It's hard to extend commercial agreements when rockets fall on Kyiv," comments Wojciech Jakóbik, an energy expert from the Polish Energy Security Center. The Russians are left with gas supplies through Turkey and the Balkans, but this route cannot replace those through Ukraine. The remaining clients of Gazprom, pro-Russian Slovakia and pro-Russian Hungary, are in trouble. These countries' authorities have only themselves to blame, as the official EU policy mandates moving away from Russian resources by 2027. Everyone was preparing for it, but they wanted to stick with Russian gas," Jakóbik explains.
The analyst indicates that the European Commission has secured gas reserves in storage, which will help overcome potential issues. Furthermore, Poland has alternative gas delivery routes through the Baltic Pipe and the LNG terminal in Świnoujście. "The most important thing is that the gas price on the international exchange is 50 euros (51.5 dollars) per MWh, which is about six times less than during the 2021 gas crisis caused by Russia," emphasizes Wojciech Jakóbik. "It's Russia and puppet Transnistria that have a problem. It's a pity for the people who are suffering because of their elites' dependence on Russia," he adds.
Whom does the gas crisis affect?
Wojciech Jakóbik emphasizes that Slovakia can purchase gas shipped via Poland. In his opinion, no decisions have been made in this regard, as the Slovak government "deliberately wanted to remain with Russian fuel." At the end of December, the Slovakian prime minister went for a meeting with Vladimir Putin.
The situation has become most complicated in Moldova and separatist Transnistria. Cutting off gas supplies from Ukraine led to reduced electricity production at the GRES power plant in Transnistria, which used to supply 70 percent of Moldova's electricity consumption. However, Kamil Całus, an analyst at the Polish Center for Eastern Studies, believes that Moldova has smoothly transitioned through the first day of the energy crisis and managed to avoid outages.
"About 45 percent of Moldova's energy was sourced locally, and over 50 percent came from Romania. Energy was imported both through bilateral contracts with the Romanian nuclear plant operator and on the energy exchange. Shutdowns should be avoided, and the Romanian operator has already contracted adequate capacities," commented Całus in a post on Portal X.
Analysts expect Ukraine's decision to mark the final nail in the coffin for Gazprom, which recorded seven billion dollars in losses for the first three quarters of last year. The industry anticipates these losses to deepen in its financial results for the full year 2024. At its peak, the Russian company exported 180 billion m³ of gas to the West, while recently, only 15 billion m³ was shipped through Ukraine. If EU sanctions cover Russian LNG deliveries, direct Russian resource supplies might disappear from Europe.
"However, a plot twist cannot be ruled out, and some form of Ukrainian-Russian agreement on gas transit might occur. I believe the gas card will be an important element in broader talks about Ukraine's future and a ceasefire, expected after a change in the U.S. presidential administration," summarizes Wojciech Jakóbik.
How does Russia comment on the issue?
"This move to cease the supply of competitive and environmentally friendly Russian source of energy both diminishes Europe’s economic potential and severely affects the quality of life for European citizens. The geopolitical context behind the Kiev regime’s decision is obvious, with the United States being the primary beneficiary of the redistribution of the energy market in Europe as well as the core sponsor of the Ukrainian crisis. Now other nations that were once part of the economically thriving and independent European Union will also bear the consequences of the US sponsorship," stated Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Thursday. In a comment posted on the ministry's website, she calls Ukraine's decision a "predatory strategy," victimizing Germany.
Many pieces of information presented by Russian media or authorities are elements of propaganda. Such reports are part of the information war led by the Russian Federation.
