Russian military faces unsustainable losses on the Ukrainian front
The Russian military is experiencing significant losses on the Ukrainian front, which threaten its future military operations, writes the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in a recent analysis. It adds that morale within the Russian military community is deteriorating due to soldiers being treated as "cannon fodder" and ineffective command tactics.
According to the think tank's analysts, since October 2023, Russian forces have lost at least five divisions of armored vehicles and tanks in the Pokrovsk region of Donetsk Oblast in eastern Ukraine. Although Russian forces have likely amassed a substantial amount of equipment in priority areas of the front, the decreasing stocks of tanks and armored vehicles and the currently low production rate of armored vehicles in Russia will likely make these losses unsustainable in the long run.
ISW has noted signs indicating that the Russian military is finding it increasingly difficult to recruit enough soldiers to replace the losses on the front. Experts remind us that during his speech on September 7th, Vladimir Putin confirmed the ongoing shortage of military personnel. The ISW also notes that Russia is forcing migrants to join the military.
"The Russian military almost certainly cannot indefinitely sustain a daily casualty rate of over 1,200 people so long as Putin remains committed to avoiding another involuntary call-up of reservists. Even an involuntary reserve mobilization will not resolve the larger problem Putin apparently faces in finding enough people to work in Russia's industries while also feeding the front," writes the think tank.
Russians with an advantage, but at a high cost
According to ISW, Russian forces lost nearly 200 tanks, over 650 armored vehicles, and suffered about 80,000 casualties while capturing only about 580 square miles during intensive offensive operations in September and October.
"Russian forces will eventually make operationally significant gains if Ukrainian forces do not stop ongoing Russian offensive operations, but the Russian military cannot sustain such loss rates indefinitely, especially not for such limited gains," concludes the American analytical center.
Reservists as cannon fodder
Some pro-Russian war bloggers have also noticed staffing issues at the front. They complain, for example, that although training lasts at least six months, the Russian military command considers reservists "cannon fodder," whose primary purpose is to draw drone attacks and shelling.
One of the commenting "war correspondents" pointed out that losses on the Russian side are high due to the tactic of sending small assault groups in several waves.
