Russian threat: NATO's unity questioned amid possible attacks

According to the weekly " Zeit " website, during an event hosted by the German Council on Foreign Relations, Kahl indicated that military confrontation might emerge as a potential course of action for the Kremlin.

He predicts that by the end of the decade, the Russian military will be capable, both in terms of personnel and resources, to launch an attack on the West.

According to Kahl, a large-scale attack on European NATO countries is unlikely. Instead, Russia might attempt to undermine the obligation to provide assistance defined in the North Atlantic Treaty—and, in this way, lead to the collapse of the Western alliance, he explained.

Kahl cited BND assessments indicating that senior Russian government representatives currently have doubts about whether "the extensive use of hybrid measures by Russia increases the risk that NATO will eventually consider invoking its Article 5 mutual defense clause."

The head of the BND noted that currently, nothing indicates specific war intentions by Russia.

"Currently, there is no evidence of concrete war intentions by Russia. But if such views gain ground in the government headquarters in Moscow, the risk of a military confrontation also grows in the coming years."

As a possible scenario, Kahl mentioned a limited intervention involving "little green men" in the Baltic countries under the pretext of protecting the Russian minority. Russia aims to defeat NATO as a defense alliance, Kahl said. From Russia's perspective, this goal would be achieved if Article 5 proved ineffective in the event of an attack.

Kahl also stated that Russia will try to divide NATO before a potential outbreak of war. This could occur, for instance, if Russia sways individual member states of the Alliance to its side.

The head of the BND claims that Vladimir Putin "will continue to test the West’s red lines and further escalate the confrontation."