Russia's military buildup signals a potential threat to NATO
According to Sueddeutsche Zeitung, a new analysis by the German military and intelligence indicates that Russia is arming itself for a potential conflict with the West.
Representatives of the German Bundeswehr are increasingly warning about Russia's threat to European peace. "The shift in tone among the military is due to a new assessment by the German intelligence service, BND," claims the newspaper "Sueddeutsche Zeitung", citing findings from its journalists and public broadcasters WDR and NDR.
According to the newspaper, the analysis was completed just a few weeks ago and is circulating among Berlin security officials. "Apparently, the Bundeswehr and intelligence services do not want to be caught off guard again, as they were in the winter of 2021-2022, when the BND did not anticipate an attack despite the massive deployment of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border," writes SZ.
The war in Ukraine does not weaken Russian forces
Furthermore, analysts present a "grim picture" of Moscow's plans in the latest report. "Russia believes it is in a systemic conflict with the West and is ready to achieve its imperialist goals using military force, beyond Ukraine. While there is currently no indication of an ‘imminent confrontation between Russia and NATO,’ the document states that Russia will likely meet all conditions to be prepared for a ‘large-scale conventional war’ by the end of the decade. The war in Ukraine, ongoing for over three years, has not weakened Russian forces," the report states.
According to German intelligence service analysts, Moscow is not willing to compromise and is capable of continuing the war this year.
"Despite sanctions, Russia is militarily preparing to the point where it could soon be capable of attacking a NATO state. The Kremlin could offset the high personnel and material losses in Ukraine and even continue its armament efforts. According to the analysis, the war-oriented economy produces more than is needed for the military actions in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin has also ordered an increase in the armed forces to 1.5 million soldiers by 2026," reports SZ.
Baltic states exposed to attack
The authors of the analysis also address the situation in the Baltic region.
"About three-quarters of the Russian military personnel and equipment from regions bordering the Baltic States are currently engaged in Ukraine. However, the Russian air force and navy remain fully operational in the region. Therefore, the current threat of a Russian invasion of the Baltic States should be considered relatively low. However, if the war in Ukraine were to end, as the report states, Russian units would likely be redeployed to this region," it adds.
The Russian economy continues to produce weapons at full capacity, so even after the fighting in Ukraine ends, the equipment lost there will be rapidly replaced. "Russian soldiers will return, and barracks and arsenals will be filled again. Moscow could then focus its forces directly on a NATO country," the report states.
"Sueddeutsche Zeitung" recalls that the head of the German Federal Intelligence Service, Bruno Kahl, warned in November last year that his agency sees a real danger of a Russian attack on a NATO state within just a few years. According to Kahl, high-ranking military officers in Moscow doubt that in the event of an attack on a member of the Alliance, others will fulfill the mutual assistance obligation. This increases the risk that Russia will test this scenario through a limited attack, for example, in the Baltic States.
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