Russia's race against time: Decisive victory in Ukraine by 2026

Russia aims to win the war with Ukraine before 2026, as it expects a worsening economic situation and problems with recruiting soldiers, according to experts from the American Institute for the Study of War. These conclusions were drawn after a speech by the head of Ukrainian military intelligence.

"Russia reportedly aims to achieve a decisive victory in Ukraine by 2026 before likely medium- to long-term economic and force generation constraints begin to significantly degrade Russia's ability to sustain its war effort in Ukraine," asserts the American think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). They cite the words of the head of Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR), General Kyrylo Budanov.

The Kremlin believes that 2025 will be a critical year, says Budanov. On September 15, during the Yalta European Strategy conference, he said that if Russia cannot secure a victory by early 2026, it will undermine its aspirations to be a global superpower for the next 30 years.

Budanov assesses that the Russian authorities expect a worsening economic and socio-political situation by mid-2025, alongside increasing problems with military recruitment. According to ISW, Russia is experiencing issues with voluntary recruitment for the war against Ukraine despite significantly increasing ($11,000 or more) one-time payments for enlisting in the army.

The head of HUR believes that the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region and attacks on targets in Russia are demoralizing Russian citizens. According to General Budanov, in this situation, Vladimir Putin will face the choice of announcing a new mobilization, which would be politically risky or reduce the intensity of war actions.

According to ISW, the Russian dictator is still reluctant to announce another wave of partial mobilization and will push the defense ministry to continue the current covert mobilization.

ISW assesses that it is still unclear whether Putin will decide on another round of mobilization if he experiences a crisis similar to the Ukrainian offensive (in the Kharkiv region) in the fall of 2022.

Russia will likely face growing challenges in the production and procurement of the materiel that Russian operations in Ukraine require, and the Kremlin will likely become increasingly reliant on foreign partners to meet its materiel needs, ISW experts predict.

General Budanov emphasized that the delivery of artillery shells from North Korea has critical significance from Ukraine's perspective. They had a "direct and rapid impact" on the situation on the front. Ukraine unfortunately cannot do anything about it for now, claims the head of HUR, as informed by the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.

When asked about the scale of assistance from Russia's allies (in addition to North Korea, mainly Iran and China), Budanov said North Korea is first, then no one for a long time, and then the remaining countries.