Russia's strategic foothold in Syria crumbles amid regime change

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime could result in Russia losing its strategic military bases and access to resources in Syria.

Russia's presence in this vital region is precarious. The Kremlin is trying to save face, attempting to convince the world that withdrawing part of its fleet from the Tartus port and abandoning the Humaymim air base is a strategic regrouping of forces. Diplomats are working hard to reach an agreement with the new authorities in Syria, hoping to maintain a minimal presence in the region and protect their interests. Thus, former "terrorists" have now become the "armed opposition" for the Kremlin.

- Whether the Russians will fully withdraw from Syria remains an open question. Russia supported the Assad regime, but it is possible that it will find an agreement with one of the factions within the rebels. It should be remembered that they are not a homogeneous group but are divided into numerous factions that previously fought against each other, - says Jacek Tarociński, an analyst in the security and defense team at the Center for Eastern Studies, in an interview with money.pl.

An alliance with Assad gave Russia an excellent pretext to strengthen its presence in the region, but it also served as an essential foothold and strategic counterbalance to NATO's presence. Control of the Bosphorus Strait, which Turkey holds, is a thorn in Russia's side. This effectively blocks free access to the Black Sea, as Vladimir Putin painfully realized in 2022 when President Recep Erdogan refused to allow Russian ships through, aiming to support the invasion of Ukraine.

Hence, the Syrian deep-water port of Tartus on the Mediterranean Sea was a key location. Russia has managed it with varying intensity for 50 years, turning it into a naval base for warships, including submarines.

Tartus was used to receive Soviet weapons purchased by Syrians as early as the 1970s. Initially, Russians rented part of the dock, but under agreements with the Syrian government, it gradually became a naval base. Russia confirmed its right to use the port with a clever agreement in 2005, when it wrote off 73 percent of Syria's Soviet-era debt, notes "Radio Free Europe". After the outbreak of hostilities in Syria in 2011, the base became a major logistical point for arms supplies to the Syrian regime and a rallying point for Russian forces.

Still, in 2019, Russia signed a lease agreement for the entire port for another 49 years, with plans to expand the docks. This was intended to allow the stationing of the largest units, such as the aircraft carrier "Admiral Kuznetsov" and nuclear submarines, in Tartus.

At the beginning of December 2024, when it became clear that the offensive of rebel forces was displacing the Assad units supported by the Russian army, Russian commanders decided to evacuate the main units from the base and withdraw part of the personnel and equipment. The remaining forces in the base got stuck there.

The naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus still operates, though Russians are reducing their presence. Since the rebels announced that they did not intend to seize military bases by force, Russian troops more calmly withdrew part of their personnel. Russian ships had previously left the Tartus base to conduct missile tests and did not return to port, comments Jacek Tarociński.

As suggested by OSW analyst, they may cross Gibraltar and return to their home ports in Russia or seek safe haven off the coasts of Libya or Algeria.

- The presence of the Russian fleet in the Mediterranean has never been permanent but rotational. It consisted of three frigates supported by one Jelnya tanker and a submarine, Tarociński calculates. Securing them was crucial for Russia. As assessed by the industry portal "Naval News", Jelnya is a tanker that is a "valuable asset and important for maintaining Russian forces in the Mediterranean Sea".

The Tartus base also stationed many civilian units that were leased by the Russian Federation and served as the so-called Syria Express - supplying Russian troops and the Assad army with ammunition. However, these operations were suspended due to threats from Ukrainian drones in the Black Sea and replaced by air transport. Many of these units got stuck in the port. Russians will probably withdraw them, using them for evacuation of personnel and equipment, argues OSW analyst.

For the new Syrian authorities, sea ports will be extremely important. Tartus and neighboring Latakia are not only strategic military points but also key trade and industrial centers. Currently, it is difficult to assess what decisions the new authorities in Damascus will make or what the Kremlin will do in this situation. However, sea ports will be crucial for the country's economy and security.

As indicated by the Arab Sea Ports Federation, Tartus handles a significant portion of Syria's import and export, including goods directed for the reconstruction of Iraq. It was also an important port for Iran, under sanctions. According to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA), near the port, there is a cement plant with a production capacity of 7,000 short tons per day. The same city also develops the pharmaceutical sector with seven active factories and three more under construction. It also has food, chemical, and wood industries, which, as SANA highlights, makes the city an important industrial center.

The port, meanwhile, is connected by pipelines to oil and gas fields, as it previously served as the main export port for Syrian raw materials. - Syria is no longer an exporter of energy raw materials. In 2022, the largest share of exports was olive oil (18 percent), with food products accounting for over 50 percent of their total exports, recalls Dr. Adam Juszczak, an analyst at the Polish Economic Institute.

The situation involves much more than the port and military bases. A significant amount of Russian military equipment remains in Syria, handed over to Assad's army, along with intelligence facilities and assets of companies operating under favorable contracts signed with the regime.

Russia has invested in coastal hotels, energy, mills, and agriculture. The country served as a market for grain and goods that could not be sent to Europe due to sanctions.

Russian companies operated there on special terms, such as STG, which took over fertilizer production near the recently captured city of Homs. As reported on money.pl, Russians also gained concessions for Syrian gas and oil. In March 2021, the Russian company Capital Limited signed a contract with the Syrian Ministry of Oil and Mineral Resources for exclusive rights to explore and extract on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean, up to the Syrian-Lebanese border.

With the fall of the previous regime, investments worth billions of dollars could be taken over by the new government. Other powers, like China or India, present in Syria, which remained neutral in this conflict and have investments in the country (Chinese oil giant CNPC or Indian company ONGC), could replace the Russians supporting Assad against rebels. Both countries also have significant investment potential and a strategic interest in expanding their global influence.

- We do not know Russia's reaction to the loss of an ally, which is another blow after a series of losses on the Ukrainian front. There is a possibility of increased readiness for some sort of agreement with the West, which could potentially increase oil supply from this direction as well, - considers Dr. Juszczak.