Slovak PM faces backlash over energy showdown with Ukraine

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened Ukraine on Friday with cutting off electricity supplies if Kyiv follows through on its announcement to halt the transit of Russian gas to Slovakia after the New Year. On December 22, he met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss, among other things, the issue of further gas supplies.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky responded to Prime Minister Fico's threats. In a post on the X platform, he suggested that "Putin gave Fico the order to open the second energy front against Ukraine at the expense of the Slovak people’s interests."

Both Russia and Ukraine have stated that there are no conditions for extending the transit agreement through Ukraine. However, the Prime Minister of Slovakia insists on maintaining gas transit after 2024 and claims he has proposed alternative solutions that wouldn't require direct contact between the warring nations, according to "Bloomberg."

"Second, Fico's shortsighted policy has already deprived the Slovak people of compensation for losing Russian gas transit," Zelensky said in a post on the X platform. "It now risks depriving the Slovaks of another $200 million per year, which Ukraine pays for the imported electricity."

Prime Minister Fico is trying to promote the narrative that after January 1, Slovakia will be cut off from the main gas source from the Druzhba pipeline.

Slovakia is almost entirely dependent on imported natural gas. Domestic production covers only about 1% of the demand, which averages 177 billion cubic feet of gas annually.

The primary supplier is Russia, with which Slovakia has an agreement signed with Gazprom covering deliveries until 2028. The Bratislava government conceded to Putin's demands and agreed to pay Moscow for the raw material in rubles starting in 2022. Prime Minister Fico argued to Brussels that these supplies are essential for maintaining the country's energy security. However, the European Commission responded that countries dependent on Russian gas imports had ample time to secure other sources.

Despite the narrative built by the government, Slovakia has expanded its cross-border connections, gaining access to the European network and potential supplies from different directions. An important supply route may be the pipeline from Germany through the Czech Republic and the network of the so-called Southern Corridor, including a pipeline connection through Austria with LNG terminals in Croatia on the island of Krk, Greece, or Italy. There is also a connection with Poland available.

Cutting off Russian supplies through Ukraine doesn't mean that the country will be left without gas. However, it directly impacts the gas interests of Slovaks, who benefited from the transit of Russian raw materials to the Czech Republic and further into Europe.

According to the Central European Institute, even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, about 92% of the natural gas transported through Slovak territory (data from 2019) was transited and generated significant revenues.

However, Fico argues that all of Europe will suffer from the cessation of Russian gas flow. He claimed that the European Union would face an additional 125 billion dollars in energy costs over the next two years as a result of the transit shutdown through Ukraine. Brussels does not share this view.

"Stopping the transit of Russian natural gas through Ukraine is not just a hollow political gesture," Fico said, as quoted by Bloomberg. "It’s an extremely costly move, one that we, in the European Union, will pay for," said the Slovak Prime Minister, holding firm in his stance.