Syrian rebels capture critical arsenal, jeopardizing Assad's hold
Syrian fighters from the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) faction are swiftly occupying territory and seizing large quantities of valuable military equipment. Here's a rundown of the haul, which includes nearly 200 planes and tanks.
HTS fighters have reportedly advanced halfway to Homs, following their capture of Aleppo and Hama, where significant amounts of military equipment were seized. If Homs is taken, the Assad regime could be cut off from the sea and lose Russian support from the port in Tartus and the Hmeimim airbase.
The Assad regime loses nearly 200 tanks and planes in a week
As Syrian government forces retreated from Aleppo and later from Hama, they abandoned substantial amounts of valuable equipment. OSINT analysts have closely examined the spoils gained by HTS fighters, suggesting their forces might be able to use at least some of the 145 captured tanks. Additionally, 35 planes and helicopters fell into rebel hands.
Of the tanks captured, most (84 units) are older models like the T-54/55 and T-62. Despite being outdated, these are far more valuable than a pickup truck equipped with a heavy machine gun or a ZU-23-2 gun (0.91 inches) mounted in the back. Notably, there are also several much newer models from the T-72 family (51 units) and a handful of very rare T-90A tanks (five units).
These newer models represent an advanced modernization of the T-72B, featuring a modern fire control system equipped with thermal imaging and night vision. This allows these tanks to operate effectively at night and in adverse weather conditions.
The T-90A tanks are factory-equipped with Kontakt-5 reactive armor, which is rare among Syrian forces. This armor is mainly found on newer versions of the T-72B and B3, with just over 300 units delivered from Russia after 2015. Most of the T-72M1 tanks in service did not come with reactive armor blocks.
As for airplanes and helicopters, the fighters are unlikely to be able to use them effectively, but attempts will likely be made. In the video below, you can see them trying to start a Mi-8/17 helicopter using online manuals. It's probable that some fighters will continue trying, possibly with simulators like Digital Combat Simulator World.
The fighters captured 35 aircraft, including 24 Czechoslovak Aero L-39 Albatros jets. These are light training-combat aircraft capable of carrying up to 2,205 pounds of armament on four pylons, such as pods with unguided rockets or 0.91-inch cannons. It's important to note that Syria had approximately 60 planes before the war, so losing a third of their fleet is a significant blow. However, the condition of the captured aircraft is unclear, as they may have been inoperative, serving merely as parts donors for other planes.
Other lost aircraft include 9 MiG-23 planes, one Mi-8/17 helicopter, and one HESA Ababil-3 reconnaissance drone. The most potentially useful items for the fighters might be the helicopter and the reconnaissance drone if they also captured a control station. These units could provide a significant advantage if they manage to deploy trained pilots.
Mi-8/17 helicopters can transport up to 24 soldiers, which could be crucial for conducting raids deep into enemy territory. Meanwhile, the Iranian Ababil-3 drone can serve as an early warning system against Syrian army counterattacks. Additionally, there are individual examples of highly valuable self-propelled anti-aircraft systems and entire batteries of stationary S-125 Neva or S-75 Dvina systems that could be used to create improvised ballistic missiles.
