Tensions rise as damaged cables hint at China-Russia alliance
After two underwater telecommunication cables were damaged in the Baltic Sea, clues point to the actions of the Chinese cargo ship Yi Peng 3. A few days ago, the ship departed from the Russian port of Ust-Luga. According to experts, the incident was not accidental and may indicate cooperation between services from Beijing and Moscow.
On Sunday and Monday, two underwater internet cables were damaged: one connecting Lithuania with Sweden and another connecting Finland with Germany. Both incidents occurred in the Swedish economic zone. Police in Stockholm have launched an investigation into possible sabotage. In both cases, operators stated that equipment malfunction was out of the question. The cables were physically severed.
"No one believes that the cables were damaged accidentally. I also don't want to believe that ship anchors accidentally caused the damage. We must assume that we are dealing with sabotage," said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius on Tuesday in Brussels.
Meanwhile, Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen stated that if the destruction of the underwater telecommunication cables proves to be the result of hybrid actions by a foreign state, her country will consider invoking Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. According to its provisions, an attack on one NATO member is considered an attack on all allies.
The Finnish newspaper "Iltalehti" revealed that just before the incident, the Chinese cargo ship Yi Peng 3 was near both cables and was performing unusual maneuvers. According to Scandinavian media, the ship is suspected of cutting the telecommunication cables on the seafloor of the Baltic Sea. The vessel was detained by a Danish Navy patrol ship in the Great Belt Strait.
According to Mariusz Marszałkowski from Defence24, it's hard to speak of coincidence if we consider last year's damage to the Balticconnector pipeline between Finland and Estonia, which was caused by the anchor of another Chinese freighter - NewNew Polar Bear.
"Additionally, other cables were damaged at the time. The pipeline suffered the greatest damage, leading to a leak, and an anchor was broken off. This vessel was also suspected of being responsible for that act, but at the time, no swift action was taken, and the ship escaped from the Baltic. Apparently, under pressure from Germany, a much faster reaction occurred," says Mariusz Marszałkowski, an expert at Defence24 and a lecturer at the Naval Academy in Gdynia.
He adds that it's hard to imagine the Chinese cargo ship Yi Peng 3 crew did not notice an anchor being dropped and accidentally tearing the fiber-optic cables at the bottom of the Baltic Sea.
"This automatically affects the maneuverability and speed of the vessel. And it takes several hours. The only consideration could be a technical malfunction. However, post-event behavior does not suggest this. We know that the ship did not stop and did not notify the appropriate services," says the expert.
Meanwhile, Col. (res.) Maciej Matysiak, former deputy head of the Military Counterintelligence Service, emphasizes that although ship traffic in the Baltic is high, there are tools available to services and NATO that allow tracking how a ship sails in the Baltic along the critical infrastructure laid on the seabed.
"And there are many of these lines: fiber optics, communication lines, gas pipelines, and oil pipelines. There is extensive critical infrastructure there. So it is visible who and at what time appeared before the damage. From the perspective of Russia or China, knowing that such sabotage can be done, it's an ideal place for 'accidental' actions. Moscow or Beijing have developed plans within the framework of hybrid warfare. Therefore, we should expect more such incidents. Not only reconnaissance but also those involving damage to critical infrastructure - even in the Baltic," says Col. (res.) Maciej Matysiak, former deputy head of SKW and expert at the Stratpoints foundation, to us.
In his view, it cannot be ruled out that the operation on the ship under the Chinese flag could actually have been managed by Russians. "They know how to operate under foreign flags and later wash their hands. Except that Putin's advisor Nikolai Patrushev stated last week that the USA and the UK 'plan to blow up cables and destroy the global Internet.' This is already too much of a coincidence. Releasing such information into the air, but also previous Kremlin methods, indicate that it is something done by Russia itself," Col. Maciej Matysiak believes.
Mariusz Marszałkowski expresses a similar sentiment. "This case may indicate that Sino-Russian service cooperation is going well. And it shows that Beijing is a reliable ally of Moscow. We do not yet know whether it was intentional or accidental. But it's curious that in both cases within a year, strategic infrastructure damage in the Baltic was done by ships flying the Chinese flag," evaluates the expert from Defence24.
"A Russian vessel would be immediately suspected and detained. Ultimately, the Chinese have nothing to lose and will wash their hands. And they can say it was an accident. In last year's incident, they denied it for many months. The question is: what did the Chinese get in return from the Russians? This is not a gesture of goodwill but a specific service for a service. Remember, the Russian navy is present in the Pacific, near Taiwan. So maybe Putin is repaying in this way," concludes Mariusz Marszałkowski.
