Trump administration's risky move: Can Russia-China bond break?
The Trump administration aims to disrupt Russia's alliance with China, anticipating this outcome as a result of ending the war in Ukraine. However, experts doubt the success of these initiatives and fear their potential consequences for Europe.
Members of the U.S. administration, including Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg, have openly discussed strategies to challenge the Russia-China alliance. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Kellogg stated that the goal is to pressure Putin into actions he finds uncomfortable. He highlighted ongoing discussions about disrupting Russia’s alliance with North Korea, which had not existed previously, and noted that Russia’s partnership with China has emerged over the past four years.
Experts' skepticism
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, after meeting with the Russian delegation in Riyadh, stated that ending the war in Ukraine would create "real opportunities" for a "geopolitical partnership with Russia on issues of common interest, as well as economically." However, many experts, including former U.S. Ambassador to Moscow Michael McFaul, express skepticism about the possibility of drawing Russia closer to the U.S. McFaul emphasizes that China's relations with Russia are now closer than ever.
Evan Feigenbaum from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace believes that dreams of dismantling the Moscow-Beijing alliance are "ahistorical fancies." "Putin and Xi Jinping share many assumptions about how the international order should function and hold deep ambivalence toward the United States. So pretending that they can be 'tempted' into actions they are not interested in at all is a fantasy in foreign policy," Feigenbaum commented.
The new head of the Pentagon signals the U.S. withdrawal from its role as the main guarantor of security in Europe, which would allow a greater focus on rivalry with China. Elbridge Colby, nominated for Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, opposes significant aid to Ukraine, arguing that these resources are needed in Asia.
Despite these plans, some traditional Republican "hawks" in the Senate are considering opposing Colby's nomination, which would be an attempt by the former Republican mainstream to regain influence in foreign policy.
