Trump eyes peace talks as Russian forces gain upper hand

While speaking to attendees at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Donald Trump emphasized his hope for a meeting with Putin soon, to bring an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine.

- I really would like to meet with President Putin soon to end this war. Not from an economic point of view, but because lives are being wasted there. It’s very flat terrain, and the only thing stopping the missiles are human bodies. I'm not talking about the economy or natural resources. So many young people are dying in this war, - said Trump.

At the same time, increasingly troubling news is coming from the front for Kyiv. Russian forces are tightening the blockade of Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk region. The town is considered a significant bastion and logistical hub in the southern Donetsk region. The situation there is "close to critical."

Additional towns to the west and south of nearby Pokrovsk have fallen under the control of the aggressor's army.

According to forecasts by Ukrainian soldiers and analysts, if Velyka Novosilka is captured, Russian forces will have an open road for further offensives northwards in the Donetsk region towards Pokrovsk and westward towards the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

But that is not the only problem. As "Ukrayinska Pravda" revealed, the army is sinking into crisis: "lack of infantry, dysfunctional command structures, false reports, desertions, and corruption."

- Ukraine as a country does not have the capability to regain the advantage on the front this year. It will not build such reserves or restore the abilities it had during the greatest lost opportunity - the failed June offensive. Partly, this is the West's fault because the speed and quality of deliveries have not allowed the Ukrainian army to regain that capability. And partly the Ukrainians themselves, who did not fully utilize what they had, - said retired Colonel Piotr Lewandowski to Wirtualna Polska, an instructor at the Territorial Defense Training Center and participant in numerous military missions in Iraq and Afghanistan.

He notes that additional problems Kyiv had before the war have returned with double force.

- It's the lack of well-trained personnel. Those who trained over 10 years ago during the operation in Donbas either were too few or died in battle. There was time to create such a training system that would allow the army to expand to a level of one million people. There were attempts, but they did not result in achieving combat capability. The ever-present corruption in the military was added to this, - enumerates Lewandowski.

Professor Maciej Milczanowski, a political scientist and security expert, deputy director of the Institute of Political Sciences at the University of Rzeszów, shares a similar view. - In the Ukrainian army, the lack of quality personnel is evident. The higher up the command chain, the worse it is. Brigade or division commanders must have a lot of experience. What does it matter that Ukraine wants to fight in a Western manner if it does not have the commanders to do so? - says Prof. Milczanowski.

He recalls that commanders trained in the West and by Americans after the 2014 conflict in Donbas are dying in battle. - They are being replaced by commanders from the Soviet era with a completely different approach to conducting military operations. There is also war fatigue and anger at corruption at the top of the army. Ordinary soldiers, when they hear about it, do not want to fight for Ukraine. Often also because they do not receive salaries and are not rotated; they have to fight in the mud or trenches for months, - assesses Prof. Milczanowski.

According to retired Colonel Piotr Lewandowski, the Ukrainian army's problems are also due to the effectiveness of the Russians. - The Russian army is more efficient when it comes to directing people to fight and has imposed its way of conducting the war. Ukraine has to fight in a Russian manner. Russia has the initiative on the front and will continue to have it. Their army command is doing better. Russia is a dictatorship, and in the army, this - as can be seen - works. Meanwhile, the immature Ukrainian democracy has problems managing the armed forces, - assesses retired Colonel Lewandowski.

The former military officer, looking at the war overall, emphasizes that the Russians are equally far from achieving their plans from the beginning of the conflict. - They did not force the government in Kyiv to resign, did not capture the Ukrainian capital, and did not demilitarize it. They are closer to achieving partial goals aimed at the annexation of four regions. Although they have problems there as well, - the expert emphasizes.

He calculates that in the Kherson region, they are standing on the opposite side of the Dnieper River, and their chances of an offensive across the river are currently zero. - In the Zaporizhzhia region, they are conducting only positional operations because they no longer have the strength to act in many directions. They have focused all their forces on the Donbas. They have almost entirely taken over the Luhansk region. Meanwhile, if they wanted to capture the Donetsk region at the current pace, they would need a year. Progress there is steady but paid for in blood and slow, - claims retired Colonel Piotr Lewandowski.

According to both interlocutors of Wirtualna Polska, attempts to end the war by Donald Trump will largely depend on Putin's approach. But also on geopolitical and economic pressures on Russia.

- I agree with Trump's declaration that this war needs to be stopped. Ukrainian society is increasingly starting to understand that it will have to come to terms with losing some territory and diplomatic defeat. The key is answering the question: how to force Russia to negotiate when they have the advantage on the front, and Ukraine has no chance to regain military superiority? According to Trump's announcements, we should expect more economic pressure on Russia rather than further military support. His plan seems reasonable, - says Lewandowski.

Meanwhile, Prof. Maciej Milczanowski notes that the Russians are desperately throwing everything they have into the front because if they are to negotiate, it will be from a position of strength.

- We don’t know in which direction, according to Trump, the negotiations should go. Whether on fair terms or conducted quickly and effectively. The problem may be that the Gulf states do not listen - regarding oil - to the United States in the way the American leader would like. And it will be difficult to build an "oil lever" on Russia. Especially since it will not immediately cause painful effects, - evaluates Prof. Milczanowski.

In his opinion, growing geopolitical problems in Russia are an opportunity to end the war. - The Kremlin is losing influence in the Middle East and South America. Putin also sees that he cannot exert influence in Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Syria. Political vectors there are turning against Moscow and towards China, Turkey or the United States in Africa. These are vast geostrategic losses for Russia. Trump sees this and wants to use it in negotiations, - summarizes the security expert.

Sylwester Ruszkiewicz