Trump's policies spark fears of new European nuclear arms race
The policy of Donald Trump's administration, alongside the uncertainty over security guarantees for allies, particularly those in Europe, has sparked a debate on the potential for independently strengthening nuclear deterrence capabilities in the region. Experts warn that the current U.S. approach could lead to an increase in the number of countries possessing nuclear weapons, potentially rising to 15 or even 25.
"The US president’s pivot to Moscow and scathing disregard for Nato has prompted old allies — from Berlin and Warsaw to Seoul and Tokyo — to confront what was seemingly unthinkable: how to prepare for a potential withdrawal of their US nuclear shield," writes a British newspaper.
Europe on a new path
Even now, European leaders, led by France and the United Kingdom, are discussing the possibility of extending a nuclear umbrella over all of Europe. However, experts predict that other countries may attempt to build their own nuclear arsenals. The Financial Times recalls that under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), five countries are officially recognized as legal nuclear weapon holders.
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These countries are the United States, China, France, the United Kingdom, and Russia. They possessed nuclear weapons before January 1, 1967, which was the criterion for being recognized as official nuclear weapon holders under the NPT, opened for signature in 1968 and enacted on March 5, 1970.
Since the signing of the NPT, countries not party to it, such as India, Israel, and Pakistan, have also developed their own nuclear weapons. North Korea became the first country to officially withdraw from the agreement in 2003. However, growing threats to global security might encourage more countries to follow North Korea's path, potentially diminishing the NPT as the foundation of global nuclear non-proliferation policy. As The Financial Times notes, the world might then face the prospect foreseen by the 35th U.S. President, John F. Kennedy, in the 1960s—a world with 15 to 25 nuclear countries and a heightened risk of a nuclear war cataclysm.
Who has the potential to create nuclear weapons?
Creating nuclear weapons is a time-consuming process that requires precisely defined resources. Such weapons cannot be developed without a sufficient amount of fissile material—highly enriched uranium (HEU, min. 90%) or plutonium-239 (Pu-239). Advanced nuclear technology, including reactors for plutonium production or uranium enrichment facilities, is crucial. Additionally, means of delivering these weapons, mainly ballistic missiles and aircraft, and a comprehensive scientific and industrial infrastructure are necessary. Without laboratories, engineers, and scientists proficient in nuclear physics, this process is unlikely to succeed.
Currently, it is believed that, theoretically, about a dozen countries have the technological capability to build nuclear weapons. The most advanced in terms of "nuclear threshold" potential are Japan, Germany, and Iran. In Japan's case, attention is drawn to its large reserves of plutonium from its civilian nuclear program and its highly developed technology. Some experts even claim that Tokyo could develop nuclear weapons within a few months.
Germany, in contrast, has a developed nuclear and technological industry, along with access to highly enriched uranium for civilian purposes. Iran is conducting an advanced uranium enrichment program, although it officially claims it is not pursuing nuclear weapons. South Korea, with its advanced nuclear technology, is also on the list, politically limited by its alliance with the U.S., as well as Turkey, which is developing its nuclear program.
