Trump's return: Impact on Ukraine war strategies

Donald Trump, even as a candidate, labeled the war in Ukraine as a "loss" and promised to end it within 24 hours. To this day, he has not revealed how he intends to accomplish this.

So far, the United States has provided Ukraine with the majority of international aid following Russia's full-scale invasion. Drastic cuts or a complete withdrawal of this aid could enable Russia to achieve a decisive breakthrough.

Both Kyiv and Moscow are trying to position themselves as best as possible in anticipation of potential changes the Trump administration may bring. Business Insider examined four possible scenarios for the war's development.

The possibility of a temporary ceasefire gained attention with Trump's reelection. Trump, who promised a quick end to the war upon returning to office, called on December 8 on Truth Social for an immediate ceasefire and start of negotiations.

"Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness," he stated, adding, "I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The World is waiting!"

In November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who had long rejected the idea of giving up land in exchange for ending the war, suggested that such a deal could be achieved if the non-occupied parts of Ukraine were "under NATO's umbrella."

- If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we should quickly take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control - said Zelensky, adding that Ukraine could then "get back the other parts of its territory in a diplomatic way."

John Lough, a senior associate at the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, told Business Insider that Ukraine seems to be moving away from its "maximum position" of reclaiming all occupied territory but would like "credible security guarantees from the West."

However, with Western countries hesitant to provoke Russia's President Vladimir Putin with binding commitments to Ukraine, the most likely outcome is a "freezing" of the war, as "a settlement is too ambitious at this stage."

Another possible scenario is Russia's refusal to compromise and the continuation of fighting. Military experts from the US Institute for the Study of War have repeatedly argued that Russian leaders believe they are winning on the battlefield and are unwilling to engage in serious negotiations.

In such a scenario, Ukraine would need a significant level of further support from the West, which may be difficult for Kyiv to obtain. Both Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance have openly expressed skepticism about American support for Ukraine under Biden's administration.

A prolonged war would be catastrophic for Ukraine. It cannot recruit as many soldiers as Russia and values human life more than its opponent, so it would inevitably suffer more from a prolonged war of attrition. However, a prolonged war would likely also strain Russia's military resources. Moscow is losing armored vehicles at a rate that may be unsustainable, and it may need another round of mobilization to continue replacing human losses.

The worst-case scenario for Kyiv would be a collapse of the front line due to a lack of resources or a change in international support. In such a case, Ukraine would likely be forced to cede large portions of territory, with "everything east of" the Dnieper potentially coming under Russian control through annexation or effective oversight.

The Kremlin continues to undermine the legitimacy of President Volodymyr Zelensky and demands his removal from office, despite having no grounds for it.