Trump's return to White House sparks European defense debate

The AP agency reported on Wednesday that Donald Trump has won the presidential election in the USA. The Republican candidate secured 277 electoral votes, seven above the required minimum.

"I can't stand another four years of policy papers, columns, and panel discussions about European strategic autonomy. I urge European governments to just buy tanks. Add assembly lines, build factories, order ammunition. Acquire more drones, fly more planes. Ensure ships can sail," evaluated Trump’s victory in the context of European strategy, noted Marcel Dirsus, a political scientist and author of the book "How Tyrants Fall: And How Nations Survive."

Several experts believe this is the crucial moment to make important decisions regarding the future of Europe, especially in the context of the Russian threat from the east. Bruno Tertrais, director of the French think tank FRS, calls on platform X for a high-level political meeting involving Poland, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom as soon as possible.

Arancha Gonzalez, a former Spanish foreign minister, added that "Trump is not the problem, and Kamala Harris would not be the solution (to the problems - ed.)." "The future of Europe is in Europe’s hands," which is why the work "should start now."

Helene von Bismarck, an expert at the think tank RUSI specializing in security and defense, pointed out that "Europeans don’t have time for anger or fear." "Too much time has been wasted over the last two years. No more burying our heads in the sand, no more hoping for the better. It’s action time. For our security, for Ukraine, for our future," she asserted.

Jessica Berlin, an analyst at CEPA (Center for European Policy Analysis), assessed that the last two years were wasted concerning Ukraine's defense, even with Joe Biden at the helm. "It's not the fault of American voters. It's the fault of European leaders," she noted.

David Patrikarakos, a British writer, journalist, and war correspondent, added that Donald Trump’s victory is "the final warning signal for Europe." In his opinion, Europe cannot rely solely on Washington in the context of defense.

Publicist Jakub Majmurek from "Krytyka Polityczna" expressed a similar sentiment. For him, Trump’s victory creates a very unfavorable political climate: for the United States, Europe, Ukraine, Poland, and the world. [...] Trump's second victory should be a wake-up call for Europe."

Wojciech Lorenz, head of the International Security Program at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), said the greatest uncertainty about Donald Trump concerns his approach to the war in Ukraine. Lorenz mentioned, among other things, the increased pressure on raising funds for NATO countries' defense.

Lorenz noted that there is a risk that the US president will primarily pressure Ukraine to accept Russian terms.

This could, according to the PISM analyst, create a risk of Russia feeling victorious in the war, at least partially achieving its goals and exposing the weaknesses of the USA and NATO.

This would increase the risk of direct confrontation between Russia and NATO in the future, Lorenz assessed.

The expert added that this could happen, especially if sanctions on Russia were partially lifted, allowing the Russian Federation to rebuild its military potential.

The PISM analyst assessed that there is no doubt that Trump’s presidency also presents some opportunities that should be taken advantage of. In his view, this involves, among other things, exerting greater pressure on European countries to seriously consider investing in their defense potential by increasing their defense budgets. Another opportunity Lorenz sees is a shift in approach observed during the Democratic administration, which "viewed European security mainly through the prism of German interests and political cohesion within NATO."

- We must take into account that if Americans decide to reduce their involvement in European security, the negative effects of such a decision will not be compensated even by a partial shift or strengthening of the American presence in our region, Lorenz evaluated.

The uncertainty regarding Ukraine's future is also felt in Estonia and Latvia, which might be vulnerable to Russian attacks. "Now Europe really needs to unite," writes the newspaper "Eesti Paevaleht," assessing that "the last 30 years, when we could live with the assurance that America will protect us, are over."

If Trump halts support for Ukraine, "Latvia should not expect anything good," because without US support, Ukraine will not win the war with Russia, commented Radio Zina.