U.S. greenlights Ukrainian strikes deep into Russia

U.S. President Joe Biden has given Ukraine the green light to use American weapons to strike deep into Russia, reported Reuters over the weekend, with similar reports from agencies such as AP, AFP, and "The New York Times."

This marks a revolutionary change, as Kyiv was previously denied this capability, with Washington arguing it could lead to a dangerous escalation. Meanwhile, Ukrainians have breached the Kursk Oblast, and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un has come to the aid of Vladimir Putin's regime by sending North Korean soldiers to the war in Ukraine. Ultimately, this is expected to involve 10,000 North Koreans.

"This is a very important decision," assesses Professor Vladimir Ponomariov, a Russian oppositionist and expert at the Institute of Security and International Development, and former Secretary of State in the Ministry of Construction of the Russian Federation during Vladimir Putin's initial government from 1999-2004.

Ponomariov notes that critical infrastructure like power stations, refineries, fuel storage facilities, oil pipelines, and gas pipelines are found throughout Russia, but its European part is particularly developed in this regard. Russia’s metallurgy, which requires electricity and water, also marks its "soft underbelly," and is within the range of the ATACMS system. Potentially, Ukrainians could strike 186 miles deep into Russia.

Our interlocutor emphasizes that there are still many questions surrounding American approval. The expert, who was also a general of the Russian Federation's state service in the past, points out that the exact ranges Ukraine can strike are not known.

Another question pertains to whether Kyiv can choose any target. The United States previously reacted nervously to Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries, fearing an increase in oil prices.

"To destroy critical infrastructure, missiles are needed." Until now, Ukraine has struck using drones—Professor Ponomariov reminds. As we previously wrote on money.pl, even less destructive weapons like these have caused significant problems for the Russian economy, inhibiting oil processing capacities.

Our interlocutor also highlights that Russian military facilities are located "on critical infrastructure." According to the map from the Institute for the Study of War, there are 225 known facilities and various military plants within the range of ATACMS missiles launched from Ukrainian territory. Many are located, for example, in the cities of Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh.

The use of ATACMS missiles will certainly allow them to significantly damage Russian critical infrastructure, which has so far been beyond the reach of Ukrainian missile systems. Surely, Ukrainians already have a prepared list of targets of strategic importance to the Russians - said former Polish Land Forces commander Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak in an interview with the Polish Press Agency.

Let us add that Ukraine also has within range the American missiles that threaten the Rostov and Smolensk nuclear power plants. While Russian missiles regularly strike Ukrainian facilities of this type, it is very doubtful that Ukrainians will risk international protests after attacks on these facilities, not to mention even more serious consequences.

"The United States' approval for Ukraine to attack targets deep within Russia with American missiles will lead to increased tension and deepen U.S. involvement in the war," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday.

The first suggestion that the U.S. might change its stance regarding lifting restrictions imposed on Ukraine concerning long-range weapon use appeared at the beginning of September.

"If such a decision is made, it would mean nothing less than the direct involvement of NATO countries in the war in Ukraine. This would change the nature of the conflict. It would mean that NATO countries are at war with Russia," Vladimir Putin said at the time.

Prof. Ponomariov thinks that the Russian leader will wait to react until Donald Trump moves into the White House, expected in the second half of January 2025.

Putin hopes for a different arrangement with the new U.S. administration. His reaction, if any, will probably be minor. He can't increase pressure on Ukraine any further, and there certainly cannot be any reaction involving nuclear weapons - comments the Russian oppositionist.

An expert from the Institute of Security and International Development, like many other commentators, believes that the U.S. approval for the use of its weapons to strike deep into Russia came too late. He points out that an aggressor, if it must reckon with retaliation, sometimes limits its cruelty. This was not the case here.

Some experts also see a deeper implication in the Americans’ groundbreaking decision. Marek Menkiszak, head of the Russian Team at the Polish Center for Eastern Studies, stated in an interview with PAP that the decision of the U.S. administration could also serve to "strengthen Ukraine's position in potential peace negotiations."

"The point is for the Russian side not to be the only one having a tactical advantage at this moment. And to counterbalance, to some extent, the actions that the Russians are taking at this moment and to enable Ukrainians to negotiate from a better position in the near future," Menkiszak believes.

"Biden's decision does not hinder Trump. Essentially, it gives him more ability to force Russia into a ceasefire if the Ukrainian position is slightly better than before," the expert assesses.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky officially commented on the media reports about the U.S. decision on Sunday evening: "Today, many media report that we received permission to undertake appropriate actions. But attacks are not carried out with words. Such things are not announced. The missiles will speak for themselves."

Jacek Losik, journalist at money.pl