U.S. weighs risks of letting Ukraine use long-range missiles on Russia
"New York Times," citing its sources, reports that U.S. intelligence believes that if Ukraine is granted permission to use long-range missiles to target deep inside Russia, Moscow's reaction will be significant. We explain which weapons are being referred to.
As part of Western support, Ukraine has so far received three types of long-range weapons: American ATACMS ballistic missiles, Storm Shadow cruise missiles, and SCALP-EG missiles provided respectively by the United Kingdom and France. All of these have already been used to attack Russians, but only in Ukrainian territories occupied by them. Their use to strike targets inside Russia requires additional approval from the United States, which President Joe Biden's administration has not granted so far.
U.S. reluctant to grant permission for attacks deep inside Russia
Analysts highlight the potential risks and uncertain benefits of such a significant decision. They point out that Ukrainian armed forces have a limited number of these missiles. It is also unclear whether Western allies will decide to supply more of these types of missiles to Kyiv and in what quantity.
It is uncertain what steps the U.S. President will take on this issue. On Thursday, September 26, President Biden met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House. Zelensky is lobbying for permission to use long-range missiles on Russian territory, which would escalate the conflict onto Russian soil.
The "New York Times" notes that the Kremlin often uses threats to discourage the West from supplying Ukraine with more advanced weaponry. Critics of Biden and his allies argue that they are too easily intimidated by Putin's rhetoric. Conversely, supporters point out that this approach has prevented Russia from exhibiting aggressive reactions.
High-impact weapons
ATACMS ballistic missiles were supplied to Ukrainians in two variants: M39, with a range of about 100 miles, and M39A1, with a range reaching up to 186 miles.
Launched from aircraft, Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG cruise missiles can theoretically hit targets up to 311 miles away. They have warheads weighing about 992 pounds (450 kg) BROACH (Bomb Royal Ordnance Augmented Charge). Their advantage is that they have proven very difficult to detect even by the best Russian anti-aircraft systems like the Pantsir-S1 or S-400. They are made with stealth technology.
U.S. intelligence suggests that Russia could respond to permission to use such weapons with intensified sabotage and arson operations in Europe and even attacks on American and European military bases.
American officials emphasize that most of the sabotage in Europe is the work of the Russian military intelligence GRU. They assess that in response to approval for Ukraine to use weaponry on Russian territory, Vladimir Putin might opt to intensify the sabotage campaign rather than open attacks on American and European bases to minimize the risk of triggering a more significant conflict.
