Ukraine and Russia in talks to safeguard energy sites

A diplomat involved in the negotiations informed that preliminary talks about potentially resuming negotiations regarding energy infrastructure have emerged.

The agreement could be the most significant step toward de-escalation since the beginning of the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested that this deal could signal Russia's readiness for broader peace talks.

In recent weeks, both sides have reduced the frequency of attacks on energy infrastructure—Ukrainian officials believe this is the result of an intelligence agreement.

The upcoming winter poses a challenge for Ukraine after numerous Russian missile attacks that destroyed nearly half of the national energy infrastructure. Ukraine relies mainly on nuclear power plants and energy imports from Europe. Kyiv and Moscow previously agreed that mutual cessation of attacks is in their interest.

However, according to a former Kremlin official, Putin is unlikely to agree to the deal until Russian forces oust Ukrainian soldiers from the Kursk region, where Ukraine controls 232 square miles.

- As long as Ukrainians are in Kursk, Putin will target Zelensky's energy infrastructure, claims the source.

Nevertheless, Ukraine plans to continue attacks on refineries and other targets to pressure Russia. A Ukrainian official stated that Kyiv has limited leverage beyond long-range attacks.

The invasion of Kursk led to the breakdown of talks in August, which were supposed to take place in Qatar, mediating since June after Zelensky's peace summit in Switzerland, to which Russia was not invited. Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman, declined to comment, as did Zelensky's office.

According to sources from the Financial Times, last year, Kyiv and Moscow reached an informal agreement not to attack energy infrastructure. Due to this unofficial agreement, Russia refrained from major attacks in the winter of 2022–23. However, Ukraine resumed attacks on Russian refineries at the beginning of 2023 following a failed counteroffensive, which Moscow regarded as a breach of the agreement.

Despite U.S. warnings, Kyiv continued the attacks. In retaliation, Moscow intensified attacks on Ukrainian power plants, including the Trypilska power plant 25 miles from Kyiv.

Since the beginning of 2024, Ukraine has struck at least nine out of 32 major Russian refineries. Sergey Vakulenko of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center reported that at the peak of the attacks, 17 percent of Russia's refining capacity was damaged, but most of the damage was repaired.

Ukraine is facing an energy crisis as missing capacities pose a threat before winter. Putin suggested that Russia is ready for peace negotiations "if they reflect the realities on the front." He requires full control over four frontline regions and the lifting of Western sanctions, which Ukraine rejects.

Putin added that Turkey, which mediated negotiations in 2022, recently offered new peace proposals, which Ukraine rejected. "It looks like they are not ready yet. Now the ball is in their court," commented the Russian president.