Ukraine braces for toughest winter amid faltering air defenses

This winter will be the toughest for the defenders of Ukrainian cities because the Ukrainian air defense is noticeably weaker. Supplies of missiles for Soviet-era air defense systems have already been depleted, and the number of Western-supplied air defense systems capable of intercepting Russian targets, especially ballistic missiles, is too low to meet the needs.

The Russians will likely intensively target critical infrastructure, such as power plants or thermal power stations, using missiles they have conserved in recent months. All this aims to break the will of Ukrainian society.

However, the situation may be slightly better for Ukrainian soldiers on the front: they are receiving aid from NATO countries in the form of generators, winter gear, and uniforms. Countries like Germany, Canada, Sweden, and Norway have supplied hundreds of thousands of winter kits, while Russians frequently appeal on Telegram for winter clothing.

For instance, in early November, Germany announced a winter aid package worth €235 million ($250 million), and, a few weeks earlier, the Baltic states and Norway announced a winter package worth €48 million ($51 million). Additionally, numerous charitable fundraising efforts for Ukraine are being organized.

Meanwhile, on the Russian side, situations similar to those in 2023 are likely to repeat, where 30% of wounded soldiers in hospitals in Horlivka had frostbitten limbs. Russians can at most count on international aid from Belarus and North Korea, as Russian winter clothing supplies have proven insufficient. In 2023, Belarus was to mass-produce new clothing for Russian troops.

Warm gloves and socks that protect against frostbite are crucial. In the past two years, Russian soldiers have complained about the lack of such equipment, showing on social media how they used makeshift wraps and pieces of fabric instead of socks in high boots, stating that in the 21st century, they must manage as their grandfathers once did.

Before winter arrives, both sides must contend with mud, which nearly halts attacks in some areas. Artillery and anti-tank weapons protect stable roads, the only feasible path for deploying heavy equipment.

Using equipment off-road often leads to immobilization, and while retrieving a tank with another machine is possible in the rear, such options don't exist on the main line of combat. Additionally, these conditions expose all maintenance errors, forcing equipment to spend more time undergoing repairs.

When frost sets in, all equipment operates more clumsily or fails completely. Weapon parts can freeze, and lubricants can lose their effectiveness. Concealment becomes more difficult as soldiers become especially vulnerable to detection by thermal drones or snipers equipped with thermal scopes.

Under such conditions, even building new field fortifications or using a towed howitzer poses a challenge, as seen in video footage of winter battles below.

Moreover, any attempts to warm up, such as lighting a campfire or preparing meals over an open flame, can attract artillery fire or drone attacks with grenades due to the constant presence of thermal drones in the sky. On the other hand, winter poses challenges for drone pilots because low temperatures negatively affect lithium-ion battery performance.

Thermal imaging, once reserved for vehicles like tanks, has significantly decreased in price and is now widely available. Devices like Anafi Thermal Parrot drones or hunting thermal sights such as the Pulsar Thermion 2 XP50 PRO allow human detection from a distance of up to 1,968 yards.

Unlike night vision devices, thermal imagers are very difficult to deceive. Special coatings designed to reduce light reflection in night vision don't work because thermal imagers rely on the temperature difference between objects and their surroundings.

Humans are easier to detect at lower temperatures than in warmer conditions. The only way to shield from thermal imaging is to hide one's body heat signature or position an obstacle between the thermal imager and the person, which is nearly impossible while moving. Thick vegetation can help, but it disappears in winter.

Concealment in stationary situations can be achieved with Relv Eclipse sheets or camouflage nets similar to those from Berberys, which are stretched over trenches, tents, or firing positions. The permeability of these shields is crucial (they must match the ambient temperature), and soldiers must avoid generating excessive heat, such as from diesel generators or Esbit field stoves.

Instead, many armed forces use chemical heaters to warm meals. These heaters generate heat through a chemical reaction of iron and magnesium-based compounds. Water acts as the activator, though new solutions have emerged that use air instead.

One weakness of Thermal imaging is that fog and dense clouds can reduce effectiveness. Russians often attack at dusk or dawn when tank temperatures are close to the ambient temperature. They also modify exhaust systems to release exhaust gases near the ground.

However, these techniques are makeshift compared to modern multi-band camouflage used on some tanks. Additionally, new tanks come equipped with auxiliary power units (APUs) as alternative power sources. These are typically small generators producing up to 20 kilowatts, consuming less fuel and generating less heat than the main engine.

APUs can be found in T-80 tanks, as well as Ukrainian-modified T-72 AMTs, American M1A1 Abrams, and Polish PT-91 Twardy tanks deployed in Ukraine.

Ukraine has much better access to the above solutions than Russia, which will likely influence the effectiveness and losses of the forces, similar to previous years.