Ukraine faces tough choices as draft age debate heats up
Experts from the Ukrainian General Staff have warned through the media that the current pace of mobilization does not compensate for the losses incurred at the front. This is one of the reasons suggested for lowering the mobilization age to 18 years. The country was thrown into turmoil when U.S. officials presented President Zelensky with this dramatic choice.
Parents of 17-year-olds are taking them out of Ukraine in advance so that once they reach adulthood, they won't be affected by a ban on leaving the country and potential future mobilization. According to BBC Ukraine, this drastic measure results from discussions about mobilizing people aged 18-25 for war. Previously, mobilization affected citizens over the age of 25, but this may change. The Ukrainian army is short on recruits, and the current mobilization pace does not offset the losses at the front.
President Volodymyr Zelensky is under pressure from the U.S. administration to consider mobilizing younger men aged 18-25 for the Ukrainian army. Experts warn, however, that preserving the approximately 2.5 million people in this generation (1.3 million men) is crucial for the state's potential.
- The Ukrainian nation may disappear in 180 years if the demographic situation does not change - warned Dr. Olga Bohomolec, a well-known Ukrainian doctor and expert. She highlighted the consequences of war losses, emigration, and unfavorable demographic trends. - The lands of Ukraine will remain; someone will sow grain on them, but they will no longer be Ukrainians - states Bohomolec, as quoted by the Unian agency.
Ukraine needs 400-500 thousand soldiers
President Zelensky does not agree with the American proposals. - What we have made clear is that if they produce additional forces to join the fight, we and our allies will be ready to equip those forces and train those forces to enter battle - announced Matthew Miller, U.S. State Department spokesman, recently. He emphasized that the proposal is based on discussions regarding the front's situation in the eastern part of the country. For the past three months, the Russians have gained new territories there.
- Zelensky's actions are perplexing. He neither wants nor can accept Putin's demands, yet he has no clear plan for supporting his exhausted army. Someone must operate the weapons. They need 400-500 thousand people to form units to replace fighting soldiers in a few months - assessed a Polish military expert.
Gen. Skrzypczak believes that exhaustion from battles and losses is causing Ukrainian forces to retreat at the front in the eastern part of the country. The Russians are engaging in battles, cutting off defenders near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. Ultimately, the Kremlin aims to capture the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
- Both sides are extremely exhausted by the conflict and cannot afford to carry out decisive operations. Russia will have new forces after the autumn draft and will certainly deploy them - summarized a former military officer.
War in Ukraine: a lost generation
The discussion around drafting younger reservists has received mixed reactions in Ukraine. - We don't have enough young people. Some say we will have a lost generation because they will go to war. If they don't want to go to war, they are already a lost generation. We raised those who do not want to defend their homeland - expressed dissatisfaction by Col. Roman Kostenko of the SBU military intelligence, secretary of the National Security, Defense, and Intelligence Committee.
He believes the mobilization age in Ukraine should start at 20 years. He noted that in many countries, mobilization from the age of 18 or 20 is common practice, and the fact that it's different in Ukraine surprises American congressmen.
Controversial Ukrainian deputy Mariana Bezuhla revealed in November that the army's personnel shortages are so great that the most valuable specialists are being sent to the trenches as infantry. She explained that this weakened anti-aircraft units, allowing more Russian drones to strike cities.
State of war and surprising signal from the Kremlin
Military experts estimate that during the winter of 2024-25, the Kremlin will want to conclude several major battles. They aim to solidify territorial gains before a potential administration change in the U.S. and before expected negotiations might commence.
Between September 1 and November 30, the Russians gained over 620 square miles in eastern Ukraine. With an estimated casualty rate of 1,500 per day (killed and wounded), October was the bloodiest month of the war for Russia - estimate Russian independent media Verstka and The Insider.
According to the authors, the number of killed ranges from 115,000 to 160,000, significantly surpassing the death toll of the Soviet war in Afghanistan. The total number of Russian casualties, including the wounded, is estimated at around 800,000 people.
Meanwhile, a surprising statement came from the Kremlin on December 10. - Russia has practically fulfilled the "special operation" missions in Ukraine set before the invasion by President Vladimir Putin. (...) The strategic initiative in all areas belongs to us; we are close to achieving our goals - said Sergei Naryshkin, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), in an interview. According to him, the United States and the United Kingdom expected to impose on Russia a long-lasting war of attrition.
Despite Naryshkin's boasts, the statement was interpreted on Telegram as a signal that the Kremlin is willing to end the conflict. The goals of the "special operation" do not exist. They will be exactly what Putin deems necessary to declare victory when he decides to end the war - summarized by the Russian authors of the research project System.
