Ukraine misses crucial window as Russian reinforcements arrive

Recently, the frequency of attacks on Ukrainian positions along the entire front in Donbas has dropped by two-thirds. Near Pokrovsk, a main target of the Russian offensive, it has even halved. A week ago, the Russians were attacking defense lines 50-60 times a day. Now, the Ukrainian command triumphantly announced that they had managed to stabilize the front line.

General Oleksandr Syrsky said in an interview with CNN that the operation in the Kursk Oblast contributed to the weakening of the Russian offensive towards Pokrovsk. "It turns out that although the Russians did not move many units from the Pokrovsk area, aside from one marine brigade, they are now unable to maneuver their reserves as they did before," Syrsky added.

However, as Gen. Syrsky stated, stabilization on the front was far from achieved. The Russians captured about 4 square miles of territory in Donbas. In Kursk Oblast, the Ukrainians withdrew to fortified positions, giving up about 15 square miles to the Russians. Everyone was waiting for the Russians to make a move.

The Russians had to transfer nearly 10,000 soldiers from Donbas to Kursk Oblast. This forced their command to take a temporary operational pause on the main offensive direction, at least until the arrival of more infantry. The Russians have almost endless numbers of these.

Russian experts and propagandists emphasized that the halt in operations was solely due to a temporary lack of soldiers and the need to bring in reserves. They said that when these reserves arrive, the intensity of the fighting would increase again. Especially since President Vladimir Putin continues to prioritize Donbas.

"Perhaps we will gather all our reserves. We have 5 million security forces in the rear who know how to handle weapons. If half of them are sent to the front, we will trample everything there, even if they are only given shovels. Russia's reserves are so large that a radical change in the situation will simply be delayed," Russian military journalist Dmitry Kornev said on RTVI television.

This is exactly what happened. It was expected that the Russians would need up to two weeks of peace to bring up reserves. On September 13, I wrote that reserves "could appear on the front within the next two weeks" and Ukrainians should do everything to strengthen their position before the expected negotiations and the arrival of Russian reserves. Unfortunately for Kyiv, nothing was done to take advantage of this time.

At the beginning of September, there were reports that four reserve brigades had been transferred to Donbas and were supposed to strike south of Pokrovsk. It is still unknown if this actually happened. So far, there has been no evidence that fresh units have entered the fight, and it was precisely south of Pokrovsk that the Russians attacked and pushed back the Ukrainian defense, leading to the partial encirclement of Vuhledar.

The city was defended by soldiers of the 72nd Independent Mechanized Brigade, who had manned the section for over two years and effectively defended it. Unfortunately, during this time, the brigade did not experience significant rotation or extended rest. This is the biggest thorn in the side of the Ukrainian army and a problem that has been recurring since the end of the first year of the war. The Russians do not have this problem.

Soon, the autumn conscription, which called up over 140,000 conscripts, will end the one-year mandatory military service. For several weeks, Russian social media has been repeating that conscripts will be "offered" contracts at the end of their service so they can be sent to the front.

Since the beginning of the war, Ukrainians have faced the problem of the constant influx of new Russian soldiers. For every killed one, another quickly appears. So what if they are less trained and equipped? Since the Battle of Bakhmut, Russians have employed the "meat assaults" tactic, counting on continuous hits to wear down defenders and exhaust ammunition supplies. It worked then. This scenario was repeated near Avdiivka. And now it is being repeated near Pokrovsk.

Even if the Kremlin were to send all the conscripts from the autumn draft, it would not help much. Daily Russian personnel losses exceed 1,200 soldiers. Only in the last quarter, as reported by the British Ministry of Defense, the Kremlin lost about 35,000 soldiers each month.

That is why the Russians are already reaching for deep reserves, and recruitment commissions are operating not only in penal colonies but also in homeless shelters. The numerical effects are visible to the naked eye. In just the first half of this year, 166,200 people signed contracts with the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. Last year, 490,000 Russians signed contracts. This year, the record will surely be broken.

Additionally, many volunteers are still coming forward. Mostly they are young people from the poorest republics, for whom service in the army is a chance to escape poverty. Russian officials claim that this year about 190,000 people have volunteered to fight in Ukraine.

With each month, however, the quality of the conscripted soldiers declines. The Russian government is reluctant to admit it, but due to alcoholism, poor nutrition, and low access to healthcare, the average life expectancy of men in the Russian Federation just exceeds 58 years.